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All Journal JURNAL PENDIDIKAN TAMBUSAI Jurnal Christian Humaniora
Harefa, Yanuarman
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Mengukur Pengaruh Faktor Makro Ekonomi Eksternal dan Internal Terhadap Cadangan Devisa Indonesia Simanullang, Harjona; Dewanto, Fajar Wahyu; Waskito, Bima Aris; Reza, Muhamad; Musroni, Gebriel; Harefa, Yanuarman; Hukom, Alexandra
Jurnal Christian Humaniora Vol 9, No 1 (2025): Mei
Publisher : Institut Agama Kristen Negeri Tarutung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46965/jch.v9i1.2652

Abstract

Global economic uncertainty significantly affects countries with open economic systems. Foreign exchange reserves, as a fundamental indicator of a country's economic stability, must be maintained to ensure that economic activities remain stable amid global economic challenges. This study aims to identify and measure the influence of foreign debt, exports, and imports on Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves, both simultaneously and partially. The data utilized are secondary data covering the period from 2009 to 2023. The analytical method employed is multiple linear regression analysis. The results of the analysis indicate that foreign debt, exports, and imports collectively have a significant effect on foreign exchange reserves. Partially, foreign debt has a positive and significant influence on foreign exchange reserves, while exports and imports both have a positive but not statistically significant influence. The coefficient of determination (R²) is 0.883411, which implies that 88.34% of the variation in Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves can be explained by foreign debt, exports, and imports, whereas the remaining 11.66% is influenced by other variables not examined in this study.
Penerapan Metode Vector Auto Regression (VAR) Menggunakan Data Laju Inflasi, Kemiskinan, dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kalimantan Tengah 2015-2023 Nukat, Javier; Zai, Juni Arman; Narta, Randy Ary; Harefa, Yanuarman; Efatasaputri, Anjani; Fadhlurrahman, M.; Kristianto, Feron
Jurnal Pendidikan Tambusai Vol. 9 No. 1 (2025)
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Pahlawan Tuanku Tambusai, Riau, Indonesia

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Abstract

Jurnal ini membahas penerapan metode Vector Autoregression (VAR) dalam analisis data deret waktu, terutama dalam konteks ekonomi. Metode VAR digunakan untuk memahami hubungan dinamis antara variabel yang saling memengaruhi. Artikel ini menjelaskan langkah-langkah dalam membangun model VAR, termasuk uji akar unit, uji stasioneritas, uji kovarians, serta fungsi respons impuls (IRF) dan analisis varians. Evaluasi terhadap kinerja model VAR menunjukkan bahwa metode ini memiliki banyak keunggulan, seperti kemampuan untuk menangkap kompleksitas hubungan antar variabel, meskipun memiliki keterbatasan dalam menentukan durasi jeda dan memerlukan data yang terstruktur dengan baik. VAR sering diterapkan dalam peramalan dan analisis politik-ekonomi, namun kurang tepat untuk analisis politik dalam jangka panjang.
Co-Authors Alexandra Hukom, Alexandra Dewanto, Fajar Wahyu Efatasaputri, Anjani Fadhlurrahman, M. Kristianto, Feron Muhamad Reza Musroni, Gebriel Narta, Randy Ary Nukat, Javier Simanullang, Harjona Waskito, Bima Aris Zai, Juni Arman