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All Journal Ekuilibrium : Jurnal Ilmiah Bidang Ilmu Ekonomi ARBITRASE: JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND ACCOUNTING Efficient: Indonesian Journal of Development Economics
Yozi Aulia Rahman
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Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Pengaruh Variabel Makroekonomi terhadap Ekspor Indonesia Pendekatan Model Autoregressive Distributed Lag Daniel Cristover; Yozi Aulia Rahman
ARBITRASE: Journal of Economics and Accounting Vol. 6 No. 1 (2025): July 2025
Publisher : Forum Kerjasama Pendidikan Tinggi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47065/arbitrase.v6i1.2499

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), inflation, the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar, and the unemployment rate on Indonesia’s exports, based on the theories of Comparative Advantage, Heckscher-Ohlin, Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), and Export Demand Elasticity. Annual time series data from 1990 to 2022 were analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, which can estimate both short- and long-term relationships for variables with different levels of integration. The cointegration test (F-statistic = 7.44 > 3.49) indicates a long-term equilibrium relationship among variables. In the long run, inflation has a significantly positive effect on exports (coefficient = 0.480354; p = 0.0000), while the exchange rate has a significantly negative effect (coefficient = –0.247872; p = 0.0005). Meanwhile, FDI (coefficient = 0.174065; p = 0.1093) and unemployment (coefficient = –0.0000622; p = 0.8779) do not show statistically significant effects. The Error Correction Model shows a CointEq(-1) coefficient of –0.503552 (p = 0.0000), indicating a mechanism of adjustment toward long-run equilibrium. These findings suggest that inflation driven by rising export commodity prices can boost export value, while currency depreciation may hinder exports due to the heavy reliance on imported inputs. Therefore, Indonesia’s export strategy requires structural reforms in investment targeting and labor market efficiency.
MSME technology adaptation strategy in the city of Salatiga during the covid-19 pandemic Fikri Fatoni; Yozi Aulia Rahman
Efficient: Indonesian Journal of Development Economics Vol. 7 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/efficient.v7i1.4829

Abstract

Strategy is the planning and execution of an activity within a certain time to achieve a goal effectively. The purpose of this research is to describe and identify the profile of MSMEs in Salatiga City that are affected by the Covid-19 pandemic The type of research used in this research is quantitative research. The method used in this research is descriptive statistical analysis method and AHP (Analitycal Hierarchy Process) method with a total of 40 respondents and 5 key respondents. The results show that the profile of MSMEs affected by the Covid-19 pandemic is that most business actors have more than 2 employees. The impact of the technology adaptation strategy on MSMEs in Salatiga City on the economic conditions of business actors is shown through income stability during the COVID-19 pandemic. The social condition of the community is also affected from work status to how to transact. Based on the results of the AHP analysis, the most prioritized policies for MSME actors are realizing community empowerment, especially MSME actors in Salatiga City through education, training, and economic activities. With the technology adaptation strategy for MSME actors, it can help in maintaining business during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Public Spending and Income Inequality: Evidence from Indonesia Nazah Lailatus Syarifah; Yozi Aulia Rahman
EKUILIBRIUM : JURNAL ILMIAH BIDANG ILMU EKONOMI Vol 21 No 1 (2026): March
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Ponorogo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24269/ekuilibrium.v21i1.2026.pp20-34

Abstract

Income inequality represents a persistent structural challenge that poses a serious threat to inclusive economic development in Indonesia. This study investigates the impact of public expenditure on education, health, and social protection, GRDP per capita, and poverty on income inequality across 34 provinces in Indonesia during the 2015–2023 period. The analysis applies the System Generalized Method of Moments (Sys-GMM) to address dynamic panel characteristics and intertemporal persistence, allowing for consistent and reliable parameter estimation. The empirical findings indicate that lag income inequality, education expenditure, per capita GRDP, and poverty significantly contribute to higher income inequality. In contrast, public spending on health and social protection does not exhibit a statistically significant effect. Overall, the results suggest that fiscal policy, particularly public expenditure allocation, has not yet operated optimally as an instrument for reducing inequality, highlighting the importance of more targeted and equity-oriented fiscal interventions.
Co-Authors Daniel Cristover Fikri Fatoni Nazah Lailatus Syarifah