<![CDATA[Purpose – This study aims to develop an effective production planning strategy by identifying the most accurate forecasting method and the optimal aggregate planning strategy to minimize production costs for cake products. Design/Methodology/Approach – This study employs a quantitative descriptive research design. Several forecasting methods were analyzed, including naive, moving average, weighted moving average, exponential smoothing, and least squares methods. Furthermore, aggregate planning strategies, namely level strategy and chase strategy, were evaluated to determine the most efficient production plan. The analysis focused on forecasting accuracy and cost optimization in production planning. Findings – The results indicate that the least squares method is the most appropriate forecasting technique for cake products, producing the lowest error values with a MAD of 14, MSE of 300, and MAPE of 9.58. The forecasted demand for the next period is 99 cakes. Among the aggregate planning alternatives, the chase strategy is selected as the optimal approach because production levels are adjusted according to demand fluctuations, resulting in a total production planning cost of IDR 18,809,500.00, which is lower than the level strategy cost of IDR 20,857,000.00. Originality/Value This research is original in comparing multiple forecasting methods alongside aggregate planning strategies in a single operational analysis for a bakery context. The findings offer practical value by identifying the most cost-efficient planning approach to align production with actual market demand.]]>
