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All Journal JATI UNIK : Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik dan Manajemen Industri Journal of Social Research Journal Research of Social Science, Economics, and Management
I Ketut Gunarta
Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember
Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Social Sciences

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Perencanaan Mitigasi Risiko Berbasis Event Tree Analysis untuk Meningkatkan Keandalan PLTGU Sastya Adzani Syahbania; I Ketut Gunarta
JATI UNIK : Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik dan Manajemen Industri Vol. 9 No. 2 (2026): April
Publisher : Industrial Engineering, Engineering of Faculty, Universitas Kadiri

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30737/jatiunik.v9i2.6495

Abstract

Repeated failures of critical equipment at power generation facilities can significantly disrupt operations and reduce system availability. In 2023, PT X's Block 1 Unit A Combined Cycle Power Plant recorded its lowest Equivalent Availability Factor (EAF) of 84.95% due to repeated failures of several critical components. Previous studies have identified these equipment failures and analyzed their reliability levels. This study aims to develop mitigation scenarios to reduce operational risks using Event Tree Analysis (ETA). ETA uses failure probabilities from previous reliability assessments as initiating events to model potential event sequences and evaluate their consequences. The results show that each tool generates between 4 and 16 scenario pathways, depending on the number of mitigation programs. All proposed mitigation scenarios successfully reduced the overall risk level to “Low” across all seven critical pieces of equipment. This study concludes that ETA provides an effective way to systematically organize mitigation efforts based on failure probability and consequence analysis. The contribution of this study is the development of a scenario-based mitigation framework using ETA to support decision-making and enhance operational reliability at combined-cycle power plants.
Investment Analysis Upgrading Capacity of Produced Water Treatment System (PWTS) at a Gas Processing Facility I Made Bayu Sukma Firmanjaya; I Ketut Gunarta
Journal Research of Social Science, Economics, and Management Vol. 5 No. 5 (2025): Journal Research of Social Science, Economics, and Management
Publisher : Publikasi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59141/jrssem.v5i5.1237

Abstract

The oil and gas industry remains a strategic pillar for national energy security, yet it faces significant operational challenges as production fields mature. A critical issue is the exponential increase in produced water, which often surpasses the design limits of existing Produced Water Treatment Systems (PWTS). This research evaluates the investment feasibility of upgrading the PWTS capacity at a major gas processing facility where current water production has reached 3,110 BWPD, significantly exceeding the 2,000 BWPD design capacity. To address this, a hybrid framework was developed by integrating Technical and Economic Risk Assessments. Technical risks were quantified using Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), involving 28 failure modes across seven primary equipment units. To mitigate the subjectivity of expert judgment, a Monte Carlo Simulation with 10,000 iterations was implemented, followed by a Risk Matrix to translate technical failures into quantifiable "Expected Costs." The Economic Risk Assessment was conducted via Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA), incorporating these expected costs as avoided-loss benefits. The results identify an optimal upgrade capacity of 6,000 BWPD, which yields a Net Present Value (NPV) of USD 84.94 million, an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 80.88%, a Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) of 16.59, and a Payback Period (PP) of 24 months. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis underscores the project’s robustness, demonstrating resilience against operational expenditure (OPEX) hikes of up to 50%, while establishing a critical production decline tolerance of -1.5% per day. This integrated methodology provides a robust, data-driven decision-making tool for managing high-risk energy infrastructure investments.
Risk and Performance Analysis of Fiber Optic Maintenance Activities at PT X Using a Risk-Based Performance Management Approach I Putu Miarsanjaya Astagina; I Ketut Gunarta
Journal of Social Research Vol. 5 No. 9 (2026): Journal of Social Research
Publisher : International Journal Labs (AHU-0028405-AH.01.14 Tahun 2022)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55324/josr.v5i9.3319

Abstract

As one of the largest telecommunications infrastructure providers in Indonesia, PT X plays a crucial role in maintaining network performance through routine preventive maintenance (PM) activities. However, the high number of trouble tickets in several regions, particularly North Sumatra, indicates that PM activities have not been fully effective in preventing network disruptions. This condition highlights the need for an integrated risk management approach to improve the effectiveness of maintenance activities. This study aimed to identify, evaluate, and provide risk management recommendations for PT X’s fiber optic maintenance activities. Using Risk-Based Performance Management (RBPM) integrated with Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), this study identified potential failure modes, calculated Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs), and developed mitigation strategies aligned with the identified risk profiles. The identification results revealed 20 risks that could affect the achievement of PT X’s two fiber optic maintenance Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). Among these identified risks, 2 were categorized as extreme risks, 7 as high risks, 8 as medium risks, and 3 as low risks. Based on the Pareto principle, 12 priority risks were identified, with avoidance and mitigation selected as the appropriate risk response strategies. The proposed risk management recommendations are expected to help PT X improve customer satisfaction and operational performance by reducing the number of trouble tickets requiring additional corrective maintenance (CM) activities, which may result in additional costs. This study also supports PT X in identifying and prioritizing risks associated with fiber optic maintenance activities.
An Evaluation of the Business Strategies of Dry Bulk Shipping Companies Registered in Indonesia in Maximizing Business Growth During the Coal Price Boom Pratama Notariza; I Ketut Gunarta
Journal of Social Research Vol. 5 No. 10 (2026): Journal of Social Research
Publisher : International Journal Labs (AHU-0028405-AH.01.14 Tahun 2022)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55324/josr.v5i10.3417

Abstract

The coal price boom since 2021 increased production, cargo volumes, and freight and time charter rates; however, not all dry bulk shipping companies were able to convert these opportunities into optimal revenue and profit growth. This study analyzed the effect of coal prices on business growth and assessed appropriate business strategies. Secondary data comprised the Indonesian Coal Reference Price and financial indicators, including revenue, gross profit, sales growth, and gross profit margin, for the 2013–2023 period, supported by audited financial statements and annual reports of five listed shipping companies from 2018 to 2023. The analysis employed Spearman’s rank correlation, simple linear regression, comparative financial ratio analysis, and SWOT analysis. The results showed that coal prices significantly affected BSML’s and HAIS’s revenue, TPMA’s gross profit, and HAIS’s sales growth. BSML and HAIS expanded their operations through third-party vessels, while TPMA maintained performance through vessel utilization and operational efficiency. During 2021–2023, HAIS recorded average revenue growth of 47.0% and a return on equity of 17.8%, while TPMA recorded 20.4% and 14.2%, respectively. Over the 2018–2023 period, TPMA achieved an average gross profit margin of 50.6% and an EBITDA margin of 43.0%. The recommended strategy was to utilize chartered vessels for short-term expansion, followed by gradual investment in owned vessels and improvements in operational efficiency.
Co-Authors I Made Bayu Sukma Firmanjaya I Putu Miarsanjaya Astagina Pratama Notariza Sastya Adzani Syahbania