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Demand Forecasting of Domestic Gas Consumption: A Comparative Study of Trend Analysis, Moving Average, Single and Double Exponential Smoothing Methods Uchendu Onwusoronye Onwurah; Chukwuebuka Martinjoe U-Dominic; Christopher Chukwutoo Ihueze; Onyekachukwu Godspower Ekwueme; Obiora Jeremiah Obiafudo; Emmanuel Okechukwu Chukwumuanya
Indonesian Journal of Computer Science and Engineering Vol. 2 No. 01 (2025): IJCSE Volume 02 Nomor 01, Mei 2025
Publisher : CV. Cendekiawan Muda Sriwijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70656/ijcse.v2i01.429

Abstract

The increase in population and global economy has led to an increase in energy demand and consumption. Domestic gas consumption has continued to increase on a daily basis. Forecasting is essential to support decisions such as inventory management, production planning, and procurements in natural gas production and distribution. This study is aimed at forecasting natural gas demand in a selected area using trend analysis, moving average, single exponential smoothing, and double exponential smoothing techniques. 16 years (2009–2024) historical data were collected from a domestic gas distribution plant. The data were analyzed, and forecasts were made using trend analysis, moving average, single exponential smoothing, and double exponential methods. A comparative study revealed that trend analysis outperformed the other forecasting techniques, based on the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute deviation (MAD), and mean squared deviation (MSD) as the decision criteria. The performance of double exponential smoothing is very close to that of the trend analysis. This study concludes that both trend analysis and double exponential smoothing, based on their lower MAPE and MAD, can be adopted by the gas plant in forecasting the domestic gas demand in the selected area.
The Integration of TPM in SS-DMAIC Framework to Reduce Production Losses and Enhance Process Performance: a Case Study Chukwuebuka Martinjoe U-Dominic; Ifeyinwa Juliet Orji; Uchendu Onwusoronye Onwurah; Nwufo Maduka Augustine
Journal Majelis Paspama Vol. 3 No. 01 (2025): Journal Majelis Paspama, January 2025
Publisher : Journal Majelis Paspama

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Abstract

The primary cause of production system losses is widely recognised to be unplanned stoppages and breakdowns, as idle machines waste time and lower output and throughput. Many firms have undergone a paradigm shift from traditional methods to more sophisticated process improvement strategies to address the dynamic and ever-changing production constraints. To lower production downtimes and other process-related issues, an integrated improvement approach of TPM-SS-DMAIC was used in this study. The new suggested approach was validated in the cable manufacturing industry. The goals of the study were achieved in terms of increased worker knowledge, better quality, and fewer unplanned stoppages and breakdowns. Standard operating procedures were updated in response to suggestions for ways to reduce needless stoppages in extrusion line operations. Furthermore, following the process change, the overall equipment effectiveness (OEE) increased from 58% to 63%, indicating a noteworthy level of improvement.