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All Journal BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
S, Eka Eliyana
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Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

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COMPARISON OF FORECASTING RICE PRODUCTION IN MAGELANG CITY USING DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING AND AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) Imron, M.; Khaulasari, Hani; SNM, Diva Ayu; Inayah, Jauharotul; S, Eka Eliyana
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 17 No 3 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol17iss3pp1533-1542

Abstract

Magelang City has experienced a significant decline in the rice production sector, triggering the need for forecasting research as the next crucial step. This research aims to forecast rice production in Magelang city. By applying Double Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA methods, the most suitable forecasting model is identified. Data on rice production was obtained from the Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) of Magelang city. The results revealed that the ARIMA (0,1,1) model with MSE of 479,259 was the best choice. This model is expressed as . Using this model, rice production was forecast from July to December 2023, the forecasting results showed that rice paddy production is expected to fluctuate in the coming months. For July 2023, production is projected to be around 65,1762 units, followed by 51,4779 units in August, 58,2432 units in September, and so on.
Co-Authors Hani Khaulasari Inayah, Jauharotul M. Imron SNM, Diva Ayu