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All Journal BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Susanto, Mohammad Hilmi
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Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

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BAYESIAN NEURAL NETWORK RAINFALL MODELLING: A CASE STUDY IN EAST JAVA Astutik, Suci; Rahmi, Nur Silviyah; Irsandy, Diego; Saniyawati, Fang You Dwi Ayu Shalu; Mashfia, Fidia Raaihatul; Lusiana, Evelin Dewi; Risda, Intan Fadhila; Susanto, Mohammad Hilmi
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 18 No 2 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol18iss2pp1105-1116

Abstract

Rainfall is an important parameter in meteorology and hydrology, and it measures the amount of rain that falls from the atmosphere to the ground surface in liquid form. However, in the process of measuring rainfall, changes in the rainfall cycle sometimes occur due to climate change, global warming, and other factors. Therefore, this research aims to model daily rainfall using the Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) approach, combining the Bayesian Method and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). ANN is suitable for rainfall models that have intermittent characteristics. Meanwhile, the Bayesian method provides advantages in producing model parameter inferences that provide uncertainty measurements in predictions. BNN is expected to deliver better daily rainfall predictions than ANN. This research used daily rainfall data in East Jawa, and the results show that the Bayesian Neural Network produces better rainfall predictions when describing rainfall in East Java. These predictions will be very useful for the government and the people of East Java province to prevent flooding. Also, with rainfall predictions, people will know more about what crops should be planted during the rains.
Co-Authors Irsandy, Diego Lusiana, Evelin Dewi Mashfia, Fidia Raaihatul Rahmi, Nur Silviyah Risda, Intan Fadhila Saniyawati, Fang You Dwi Ayu Shalu Suci Astutik