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All Journal JDE (Journal of Developing Economies)
Akighir, David Terfa
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African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement and the Agricultural Performance in Nigeria in the Post Covid-19 Era: A Simulation Focus on Agricultural Output, Trade, and Employment Akighir, David Terfa; Kpoghul, Emmanuel Tordue
Journal of Developing Economies Vol. 7 No. 2 (2022)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jde.v7i2.38261

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has unleashed negative economic consequences on the global economies and Nigeria inclusive. In response, Nigeria has launched the Economic Sustainability Plan (ESP) to leverage the potential gains of the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement (AfCFTA) to accelerate agricultural performance in the post-COVID-19 era. Thus, this paper investigated the potential impact of AfCFTA on the performance of the agricultural sector in Nigeria in the post-COVID-19 era focusing on Agricultural output, trade and employment within the framework of a small macro-econometric model. The study used secondary data from 1970 to 2018 for a within-sample forecast and a twelve-year out-of-sample forecast spanning from 2019 to 2030. Two simulation experiments based on AfCFTA tariff reduction lines were conducted. Findings revealed that with tariff reduction under the AfCFTA, there is an increase in agricultural output, exports, employment, and the share of agriculture to GDP growth, as well as actual private consumption in Nigeria. The study concludes that if the AfCFTA is implemented, it will boost agricultural sector performance in Nigeria during the post-COVID-19 era. Based on these findings, the study recommended that the country implement mechanisms to overcome the challenges militating against agricultural production and exports in the economy to maximize the potential gains that AfCFTA provides. The government should also streamline its expenditures and invest hugely in infrastructural facilities such as roads, electricity, and expansion of sea-port facilities, communication networks and earth-dams to encourage dry-season farming activities.
Foreign Exchange Market Pressure, Exchange Rate and Trade Balance in Nigeria: Is There Evidence of the J-Curve Effect? Akighir, David Terfa
Journal of Developing Economies Vol. 8 No. 2 (2023)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jde.v8i2.44656

Abstract

The paper examined the relationship between the pressure in the exchange market, exchange rate, and trade balance in Nigeria to ascertain whether or not the J-Curve effects exist. The investigation was anchored on the Marshal-Lerner and the J-Curve theories using annual time series data from 1986 to 2021. The Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) technique was employed, and the findings revealed that the pressure in the exchange market exerts a strong contemporaneous positive effect on the exchange rate in the country. Also, the findings showed that the exchange rate has a strong contemporaneous negative effect on the trade balance. Furthermore, the long-run results indicated that the exchange rate has a positive but weak effect on the country's trade balance. Based on these findings, it was concluded that the relationship that exists among foreign exchange market pressure, exchange rate, and balance of trade suggests the potentiality of the J-Curve effects in the economy. The study recommended that local production of goods and services in Nigeria should be strengthened so that the depreciation of the naira would improve the trade balance. In the event of naira depreciation, domestic consumers could redirect their demand to the consumption of locally produced goods and services. Also, local production, especially in manufacturing and agricultural processing, should be encouraged, and the quality of the products be enhanced for competitive exportation to improve the trade balance in the country. The policy implication is that policymakers can leverage naira depreciation as a policy tool to enhance Nigeria's balance of trade.
Co-Authors Kpoghul, Emmanuel Tordue