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The Role of Socioeconomic and Female Indicators on Infant Mortality in West Nusa Tenggara: A Panel VECM Analysis Arini, Rechtiana Putri; Mumtazah, Soraya Afkarina; Siahaan, Rio Manuppak; Kartiasih, Fitri
Journal of Developing Economies Vol. 9 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jde.v9i1.53416

Abstract

West Nusa Tenggara Province has an infant mortality rate that surpasses the national average. Additionally, it is also characterized as having a high Gini ratio and gender inequality index. Therefore, this study aims to examine the differences in classification among different regions, the long-term and short-term impact, and the causal relationship between socio-economic factors and female indicators in relation to infant mortality. This study used the co-integration method of the panel VECM and applied the natural breaks (Jenks) classification method based on panel data from 10 regencies/cities in West Nusa Tenggara Province between 2012 and 2022. This study discovered two instances of co-integration where the life expectancy of women was found to have a negative impact, while the percentage of women working full-time was found to have a positive impact on the long-term infant mortality rate. Infant mortality rates in the short term showed a significant relationship with the cointegration coefficient, mean years of schooling of women, life expectancy of women, and percentage of women working full-time. There is a direct causal relationship between the mean years of schooling of women and the percentage of people living in poverty and the infant mortality rate. This study is expected to serve as a basis to guide the Government of West Nusa Tenggara Province in promoting equity in education, equal job opportunities, adequate healthcare facilities, and increased investment to decrease infant mortality.
Penggunaan Indeks Google Trends dalam Nowcasting Jumlah Penumpang Pesawat Terbang pada Keberangkatan Domestik dan Internasional di Bandara Soekarno-Hatta Arini, Rechtiana Putri; Wijayanto, Arie Wahyu
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2583

Abstract

Soekarno-Hatta International Airport, as Indonesia’s busiest air transit hub, requires swift, data-driven decision-making to implement responsive policies that enhance passenger services. The number of airline passengers serves as a critical indicator for managing passenger traffic flow, demanding timely data insights. However, official statistics often suffer from a 1–2 month reporting lag. To address this, the study applies nowcasting techniques to estimate passenger volumes using Google Trends indices from January 2016 to January 2024. By integrating GT indicators into SARIMAX and Time Series Regression models, airport authorities can access early signals of passenger traffic volumes. Among the models tested, SARIMA(0,1,1)(1,0,0) 12 demonstrated the best performance, achieving a MAPE of 15.15%. This approach offers valuable, near-real-time insights to support operational planning and policy response in a fast-paced transport environment.