Abar, Nur Rahmah Yunita
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Long-term Evolution of Maternal and Child Health Indicators in Indonesia: Evidence from 28 Years of National Health Data Ayu Rahayu; Abar, Nur Rahmah Yunita
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i2.9605

Abstract

Indonesia has undergone significant healthcare system transformations over the past three decades, including the implementation of universal health coverage in 2014. However, comprehensive long-term analyses of maternal and child health (MCH) trends spanning nearly three decades remain limited. This study examines the evolution of key MCH indicators in Indonesia from 1995 to 2023 to assess progress, identify patterns, and inform future policy directions. We conducted a longitudinal trend analysis using data from the Indonesian National Health Survey (Riset Kesehatan Dasar/Riskesdas) covering the period from 1995 to 2023. Nine key indicators were analyzed: prevalence of health complaints, skilled birth attendance, childhood immunization coverage (BCG, DPT, polio, measles), and breastfeeding practices. Statistical methods included linear trend analysis, Bayesian changepoint detection, correlation analysis, and segmented regression to assess policy impacts. Healthcare utilization patterns, including outpatient care, inpatient care, self-medication, and traditional medicine use, were examined as contextual indicators. Substantial improvements were observed across most MCH indicators over the 28 years. Skilled birth attendance showed the most dramatic progress, increasing from 46.1% (1995) to 95.7% (2023), representing an annual improvement rate of 2.55%. Childhood immunization coverage achieved high levels (>85%) for most vaccines by the 2000s, though measles vaccination remained variable (54-80% range). Breastfeeding patterns showed a structural break in 2015 due to methodological changes, which complicated trend interpretation. Healthcare utilization evolved significantly, with outpatient care increasing from 20% to >50% before declining to 35% by 2023, while self-medication practices rose substantially to 80%. Correlation analysis revealed alignment between health needs and service utilization (r = 0.48 for outpatient care). Changepoint analysis identified accelerated improvements around 2000-2005 and 2014-2015, coinciding with healthcare decentralization and universal coverage implementation respectively. Indonesia achieved remarkable progress in maternal and child health over 28 years, with skilled birth attendance approaching universal coverage and immunization programs maintaining high performance. The implementation of universal health coverage in 2014 coincided with continued improvements, though some recent declines in vaccination coverage warrant attention. The evolution from traditional medicine to modern healthcare services, alongside increasing self-medication practices, reflects maturing health systems requiring adaptive policy responses. Indonesia's experience demonstrates that sustained MCH improvements are achievable in large middle-income countries through systematic health system strengthening, though maintaining momentum requires continuous adaptation to emerging challenges. These findings provide valuable insights for other countries pursuing similar health system transformation goals.
Simulasi Numerik dan Analisis Sensitivitas Model Kinetika Urea pada Proses Hemodialisis Bani, Alvioni; Abar, Nur Rahmah Yunita
Proximal: Jurnal Penelitian Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): Volume 9 Nomor 1 Tahun 2026
Publisher : Universitas Cokroaminoto Palopo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30605/proximal.v9i1.8336

Abstract

Gagal ginjal merupakan kondisi ketika ginjal tidak mampu menjalankan fungsinya secara optimal dalam menyaring zat sisa metabolisme dari darah. Salah satu metode terapi yang digunakan untuk menggantikan fungsi ginjal adalah hemodialisis, yaitu proses pembersihan darah dari zat-zat sisa metabolisme seperti urea menggunakan mesin dialisis. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dinamika konsentrasi urea dalam tubuh pasien gagal ginjal ketika proses hemodialisis, menggunakan model matematika kinetik urea satu kompartemen. Model yang digunakan dinyatakan dalam bentuk persamaan diferensial yang menggambarkan perubahan konsentrasi urea dan volume cairan tubuh terhadap waktu. Analisis yang dilakukan meliputi penentuan titik kesetimbangan, analisis kestabilan sistem menggunakan pendekatan nilai eigen, simulasi numerik, serta analisis sensitivitas parameter model. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa sistem memiliki satu titik kesetimbangan yang bersifat stabil asimtotik sehingga solusi sistem akan menuju kondisi keseimbangan seiring bertambahnya waktu. Hasil simulasi numerik menunjukkan bahwa konsentrasi urea dan volume cairan tubuh mengikuti perilaku yang konsisten dengan hasil analisis teoritis. Selain itu, analisis sensitivitas parameter menunjukkan bahwa parameter laju produksi urea memiliki hubungan positif dengan konsentrasi urea, sedangkan parameter clearance dialisis dan laju perubahan volume cairan tubuh memiliki hubungan negatif dengan konsentrasi urea. Simulasi numerik juga menunjukkan adanya nilai optimum parameter perubahan volume cairan tubuh yang menghasilkan dinamika konsentrasi urea yang lebih stabil. Secara klinis, hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa efektivitas proses hemodialisis dipengaruhi oleh keseimbangan antara laju produksi urea, kemampuan eliminasi urea melalui dialisis, serta pengaturan volume cairan tubuh pasien.