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Static Simulation in USD-Based Hedging Transactions for Hajj Funds in the Banking Money Market: Implications for Banking Policy in Indonesia Ahmad Saifi Athoillah; Mutia Tsalitsa Alawia
Jurnal Ilmiah Multidisiplin Indonesia (JIM-ID) Vol. 4 No. 09 (2025): Jurnal Ilmiah Multidisplin Indonesia (JIM-ID) October 2025
Publisher : Sean Institute

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Abstract

This study aimed to: (a) analyse sharia hedging transactions of hajj funds in sharia banking through static simulation, (b) identify the cost savings obtained, the optimal term and pricing, as well as the appropriate timing and amount of hajj funds, (c) provide recommendations to the BPKH. This study applied a static simulation method with a Sharia hedging scheme utilizing simple forward contracts, along with a comparative analysis of data on 25% of Hajj funds in Islamic Commercial Bank (BUS) accounts for the period 2007-2024. The simulation involved BUS entering into a USD sale and purchased a contract with a Conventional Commercial Bank (BUK), then BUK enters into a SAR sale and purchase contract with a Foreign Bank (BA). Premium calculations used financial indicators as references, including the Islamic Interbank Money Market (PUAS) yield, the Interbank Money Market (PUAB) rate for foreign exchange, and the Saudi Arabia Interbank Offer Night (SAIBON). Based on the Islamic hedging simulation, it was proven that: (i) the optimal period is 12 months because the longer the Islamic hedging period, the greater the cost savings obtained, (ii) the right time to conduct Islamic hedging is when the rupiah weakens against the USD by 20%-30% and 40%-50%, (iii) the inappropriate time is when the rupiah strengthens against the SAR by 10%-20%, (iv) the amount of hajj funds that has the potential to provide optimal cost savings is IDR 2.4 trillion to IDR 2.7 trillion and IDR 5.2 trillion to IDR 8.5 trillion. The results of this study proposed the following to the BPKH: (i) the BPKH is recommended to conduct sharia hedging by considering the right time and the optimal amount of hajj funds, as well as the potential cost savings that can be obtained, (ii) the right time to conduct sharia hedging is when the rupiah weakens against the USD and SAR, while it is not recommended when the rupiah strengthens against the USD and SAR, (iii) the amount of hajj funds that provides maximum cost savings is between Rp 2.4 trillion and Rp 2.7 trillion and between Rp 5.2 trillion and Rp 8.5 trillion, (iv) the optimal period is 12 months. Thus, BPKH needs to monitor fluctuations in the rupiah against the USD and SAR, as well as the returns from money market instruments, before conducting sharia hedging.
FORCAS: A Least Squares-Based Forecasting Application for Business Sales Budgeting Bakhtiar, Yohan; Abidatul Izzah; Ahmad Saifi Athoillah; Dion Yanuarmawan; Wiwik Mukholafatul Farida; Dwi Rahma Fitriani
Information Technology Education Journal Vol. 5, No. 1, February (2026)
Publisher : Jurusan Teknik Informatika dan Komputer

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59562/intec.v5i1.266

Abstract

Purpose – This study aims to develop FORCAS (Forecasting Comprehensive Application for Sales), a universal forecasting application based on the Least Squares method to support business sales budgeting.  Design – The research employed a system development approach consisting of problem analysis, system design, algorithm implementation, and application testing. The Least Squares method was used to generate sales forecasts, while system validation was conducted through black box testing. User experience and usability were evaluated using the System Usability Scale (SUS) and User Experience Questionnaire (UEQ).  Findings – The results show that FORCAS successfully generates accurate sales forecasts consistent with manual Least Squares calculations. Black box testing confirmed that all system functions operated correctly. Usability evaluation yielded a SUS score of 71, indicating a Grade C (acceptable usability), while UEQ results showed an Excellent rating across pragmatic and hedonic dimensions. Research implications – In conclusion, FORCAS provides a practical and replicable forecasting tool that can be applied across various business contexts. The application is particularly beneficial for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and accounting education, offering an accessible solution for systematic sales budgeting. Future development may include the integration of advanced forecasting models such as ARIMA and machine learning-based methods.  Originality – However, most existing forecasting systems are designed for specific cases and lack flexibility for broader business applications. This study develops FORCAS as a universal forecasting application to address this limitation.