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Memprediksi Jumlah Produksi Roti Dengan Menerapkan Metode Monte Carlo Nur Rohmah, Fitri; Arwin Dermawan, Dodik; Andriani, Anita
Inovate Vol 5 No 2 (2021): Maret
Publisher : Fakultas Teknologi Informasi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33752/inovate.v5i2.3120

Abstract

The process of predicting the amount of production is useful for reducing the level of producer losses due to inaccuracy in determining the amount of production, so that the stock of goods which usually experience accumulation or even out of stock is expected no longer. The purpose of this research itself is to design a system using Monte Carlo as a method to predict the amount of bread production. In the Monte Carlo method there is one step in the process using random numbers. The method used to generate random numbers this time is using the Linear Congruent Method (LCM). Hasil method. The results of this research is an application to facilitate the admin of the production sector to predict the amount of bread production for the next day. The prediction of the amount of production for this type of comb bread yields 1461 seeds of bread. The results of testing the accuracy of the Monte Carlo method in predicting the amount of bread production using MAPE, resulting in a fairly small error value of 9.43%. So this research is quite appropriate to be used as a method of predicting the amount of bread production. Keywords: Prediction, Production, Monte Carlo, LCM
Enhancing PGMI Students’ Conceptual Understanding through a Contextual Teaching and Learning-Based Science E-Module Astutik, Fitriyah Ika; Nur Rohmah, Fitri
Journal of Islamic Elementary Education Vol. 4 No. 1 (2026): Journal of Islamic Elementary Education
Publisher : LP2M IAI Al-Khairat Pamekasan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32806/islamentary.v4i1.1644

Abstract

This study aims to develop a science e-module based on Contextual Teaching and Learning (CTL) to improve the conceptual understanding of students of the PGMI Study Program of IAI Al-Khairat Pamekasan. This study uses the Research and Development (R&D) method with the ADDIE model which includes the stages of analysis, design, development, implementation, and evaluation. The subjects of the study were PGMI IAI Al-Khairat Pamekasan students taking the Science Study course in the 4th semester of 2025. Research data were collected through observation, interviews, questionnaires, and tests. The instruments used included expert validation sheets, student response questionnaires, and pretest and posttest questions. Data were analyzed using the Aiken's V index to test validity, percentage analysis to measure practicality, and N-gain to determine product effectiveness. The results showed that the developed e-module obtained an average validity of 0.87 with a very valid category. The results of the practicality test showed a percentage of 86.75% with a very practical category. The results of the effectiveness test showed an increase in students' conceptual understanding, marked by an increase in the average pretest score from 61.42 to 84.28 in the posttest, with an N-gain value of 0.59 in the moderate category. Based on these results, the CTL-based Science e-module was declared valid, practical, and effective for use in Science Studies learning. This e-module is expected to be an alternative digital teaching material that supports independent, interactive, and contextual learning for PGMI students.