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All Journal Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan Hasanuddin Economics and Business Review Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan
Pinjaman, Saizal
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Comparative Forecasting Models for Optimizing MSME Production: A Time Series Analysis Suryaningsih, Suryaningsih; Usman, Ferawati; Hidayat, Nurul; Pinjaman, Saizal
Hasanuddin Economics and Business Review VOLUME 9 NUMBER 2, 2025
Publisher : Faculty of Economics and Business, Hasanuddin University, Makassar, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26487/hebr.v9i2.6333

Abstract

Accurate short-horizon forecasting is essential for Indonesian food-service MSMEs that plan production with perishable inputs and holiday-driven demand swings. Using monthly sales from Martabak Tip Top, Tarakan (December 2023–November 2024), this study compares a three-period moving average with single exponential smoothing under a one-step-ahead out-of-sample evaluation on a common test window. Accuracy is assessed with mean absolute percentage error (primary), mean absolute error, and root mean squared error. Single exponential smoothing delivers lower error than the moving average during the test period (MAPE 8.0 per cent versus 9.2 per cent) and projects a December requirement of about 1,710 units (moving average: about 1,720). The head-to-head evidence in an emerging-market MSME setting shows that giving greater weight to recent observations provides a more reliable operational signal than equal-weight averaging when modest level shifts occur around public holidays. Practically, using single exponential smoothing as the default planning input supports tighter bills-of-materials conversion, leaner safety-stock and reorder-point settings derived from observed forecast errors, and steadier labour scheduling, thereby reducing stockouts and waste while improving working-capital efficiency. The approach is transparent and spreadsheet-ready, offering actionable guidance for operations, finance, and policy audiences concerned with MSME performance in developing-region contexts.
Examining the role of trade, consumption, and institutional quality in economic growth: Evidence from Southeast Asia Basuki, Agus Tri; Pinjaman, Saizal
Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan Vol. 26 No. 2: October 2025
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/jesp.v26i2.28797

Abstract

This research is particularly important because Southeast Asia represents one of the most dynamic and heterogeneous regions in the world, with varying stages of economic development, institutional quality, and policy orientations. Despite its strong economic potential, the region faces structural challenges such as income inequality, governance issues, and external vulnerability. Understanding the long-run and short-run determinants of economic growth is therefore crucial for designing effective policies that sustain inclusive development. Previous studies have often focused on single-country analyses or employed models that capture only short-term relationships, leaving a gap in understanding the long-term equilibrium dynamics across Southeast Asian economies. By applying the Panel Error Correction Model (ECM), this study bridges that gap by integrating both temporal and cross-country perspectives. Moreover, incorporating variables such as Government Health Expenditure and Rule of Law allows the analysis to move beyond conventional macroeconomic factors, emphasizing the interplay between institutional quality, social investment, and economic performance. The results of this study provide not only empirical evidence but also practical insights for policymakers. Identifying the key drivers that influence economic growth both in the short and long run can guide governments in optimizing fiscal priorities, improving governance, and fostering sustainable industrial and trade strategies. In an era marked by global uncertainty and post-pandemic recovery, such evidence-based understanding is vital for promoting resilient and inclusive growth trajectories across Southeast Asia.
Pandemic shocks and time-varying weak-form efficiency in ASEAN foreign exchange markets: An empirical investigation Pinjaman, Saizal; Kok, Sook Ching; Aralas, Sarma; Basuki, Agus Tri; Hadi, Syamsul; Nugraha, Pazri; Darsono, Susilo Nur Aji Cokro
Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol. 16 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/optimum.v16i1.15560

Abstract

This study examines the weak-form Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) for the selected ASEAN exchange rates—Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand—relative to the U.S. dollar (USD) over three distinct phases: pre-COVID-19 (2010–2019), during COVID-19 (2020–2021), and post-COVID-19 (2022–2023). Using monthly nominal exchange-rate data from the World Bank and applying the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit root test, the study evaluates whether these exchange rates exhibit random-walk behavior consistent with weak-form efficiency. The results reveal that all ASEAN currencies were I(1) and efficient before the pandemic, supporting the weak-form EMH. However, efficiency deteriorated during COVID-19, particularly for Malaysia and Singapore, where exchange rates became stationary at level, indicating short-term predictability due to policy interventions and market disruptions. In the post-pandemic period, Malaysia and Singapore regained efficiency, while Indonesia and Thailand exhibited partial mean-reverting tendencies, reflecting gradual market normalization. Descriptive statistics further confirm increased volatility during the pandemic and partial stabilization thereafter. Overall, the findings suggest that ASEAN exchange-rate efficiency is time-varying, resilient under stable conditions but vulnerable during systemic shocks. Policy recommendations include enhancing monetary transparency, promoting flexible exchange-rate management, and strengthening regional financial coordination to sustain efficiency during future crises.
Co-Authors Agus Tri Basuki Aralas, Sarma Darsono, Susilo Nur Aji Cokro Ferawati Usman Kok, Sook Ching Nugraha, Pazri Nurul Hidayat Suryaningsih Suryaningsih Syamsul Hadi