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All Journal Konstanta : Jurnal Matematika dan Ilmu Pengelatuan Alam
Surya Alenta Nababan
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Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Earth & Planetary Sciences Immunology & microbiology Mathematics

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Peramalan Bencana Alam di Kota Semarang dengan Menggunakan Markov Chains Suci Ramadhani; Surya Alenta Nababan; Yasmin Azzahra; Sisti Nadia Amalia
Konstanta : Jurnal Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol. 2 No. 2 (2024): Juni : Jurnal Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam
Publisher : International Forum of Researchers and Lecturers

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59581/konstanta.v2i2.3519

Abstract

Indonesia, as a country with complex geological conditions due to the convergence of various tectonic plates, is highly susceptible to natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. The city of Semarang, as the capital of Central Java Province, also frequently faces disasters such as floods, landslides, and earthquakes. Predicting the occurrence of natural disasters becomes crucial to mitigate the negative impacts they cause. This study uses the Markov chain method to predict natural disasters in the city of Semarang based on disaster data from 2018-2022. The prediction results indicate a 16% chance of floods, 34% chance of landslides, 10% chance of tornadoes, 22% chance of fires, and 17% chance of falling trees in 2023. Validation of the predictions against actual data for 2023 shows a relatively good match for floods and fires, but there are significant differences in the predictions for tornadoes and falling trees. These results indicate that the Markov chain method has potential in predicting disaster occurrences, but accuracy improvements are needed to account for weather variability and dynamic environmental factors. This research is expected to assist the government and society in enhancing disaster preparedness and mitigation in the future.
Co-Authors Sisti Nadia Amalia Suci Ramadhani Yasmin Azzahra