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All Journal JEPA (Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian dan Agribisnis) INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT REVIEW
Muhammad Firdaus Al Farohi
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Environmental Science Social Sciences

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Unraveling The Supply-Side Factors Shaping East Java’s Economy: Insights From PCA and Machine Learning Muhammad Firdaus Al Farohi; Muhammad Jamie Rofie Quality; As'ary Ricklas Hidayat
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT REVIEW Vol 1 No 3 (2023): Current Issue 3
Publisher : SMARTINDO

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58765/ijemr.v1i3.162

Abstract

Post the COVID-19 pandemic has become a moment for economic recovery for countries around the world, including Indonesia. However, the intense competition in the market, aftershocks of the pandemic, extreme weather conditions, and rapid social, economic, and technological changes have made the global economic situation much more unstable. This has resulted in economic downturns in various countries. Nevertheless, the Indonesian economy has shown strong growth. The economic growth in Indonesia is supported by various factors in terms of demand, such as household consumption, and supply, such as the diversity of business fields. By using data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) regarding the factors supporting economic growth from the production side, this research aims to examine the determinant factors that affect the economic performance of East Java. Through Machine Learning analysis using principal component analysis and clustering analysis, certain characteristics were found among districts and cities in East Java. PCA was used to reduce the number of variables and resulted in several components that are consistent with general categorization. Urban areas consistently exhibit high human resource components, while another cluster shows high dependence on natural resources.
MENGANALISIS PERAN INDIKATOR EKONOMI DAN KEUANGAN DALAM MENINGKATKAN EKSPOR PERTANIAN: STUDI KASUS JAWA TIMUR Muhammad Firdaus Al Farohi; Salsabila Kinanti; Siti Nuraida Az Zahra
Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian dan Agribisnis Vol. 9 No. 4 (2025)
Publisher : Department of Agricultural Social Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Brawijaya University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21776/

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh inflasi, nilai tukar petani (NTP), kreditperbankan, dan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap ekspor pertanian sektor pertanian di Provinsi Jawa Timur selama periode Januari 2010 hingga Desember 2023. Menggunakan model Ordinary Least Square (OLS), hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa inflasi, NTP, dan kredit perbankan di sektor pertanian memiliki dampak negatif yang signifikan terhadap nilai ekspor, yang berartikenaikan inflasi, NTP, dan kredit perbankan dapat mengurangi daya saing produk ekspor akibatmeningkatnya biaya produksi. Di samping itu, nilai tukar rupiah menunjukan hubungan positifyang signifikan, dimana depresiasi nilai tukar rupiah dapat membuat produk pertanian lebihkompetitif di pasar internasional. Selanjutnya, menggunakan model prediksi Random Forest menunjukkan hasil bahwa variabel-variabel tersebut mampu menjelaskan sekitar 70% variasidalam nilai ekspor, sementara 30% dipengaruhi oleh faktor lain yang tidak termasuk dalampenelitian ini. Temuan ini menggarisbawahi pentingnya kebijakan yang menstabilkan inflasi, mengontrol akses kredit perbankan untuk sektor pertanian, serta menjaga stabilitas nilai tukarguna mendukung pertumbuhan ekspor sektor pertanian Jawa Timur. Penelitian ini memberikanrekomendasi kebijakan untuk meningkatkan daya saing ekspor melalui kebijakan moneter yang stabil, pengelolaan akses kredit bagi petani, dan pengelolaan nilai tukar untuk mendorongpertumbuhan ekonomi regional.
Co-Authors As'ary Ricklas Hidayat Muhammad Jamie Rofie Quality Salsabila Kinanti Siti Nuraida Az Zahra