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All Journal Agro Bali: Agricultural Journal Jurnal Sylva Lestari
Manurung, Elisa Ganda Togu
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Earth & Planetary Sciences Energy Environmental Science Materials Science & Nanotechnology

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Indonesia’s Pulp Export Performance In the China Market: An Analysis Using Almost Ideal Demand System Approach Natalia, Evi; Simangunsong, Bintang; Manurung, Elisa Ganda Togu
Agro Bali : Agricultural Journal Vol 7, No 1 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Panji Sakti

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37637/ab.v7i1.1628

Abstract

Indonesia is one of the world's leading pulp producers. Both domestic consumption and global demand are increasing annually. As Indonesia seeks to meet the escalating global demand for pulp raw materials, China is emerging as a major destination for its exports, which underscores the strategic importance of this market. This study aims to evaluate the comparative advantage of Indonesian pulp exports and to identify the price, cross-price and expenditure elasticities of pulp demand in the Chinese market. Using the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) method and the Linear Approximation-Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS) model, this research analyzes annual time series data covering the period 2003-2022, focusing on the quantity and export value of chemical pulp (HS 470329). The results show that Indonesian pulp has a comparative advantage in the Chinese market, as indicated by Indonesia's RCA index greater than one. However, this comparative advantage is declining over time. At the same time, China's sustained increase in pulp consumption underscores the intensified competition among pulp-exporting countries for market share in China. Using the LA/AIDS model, the estimation results highlight a different dynamic in the Chinese pulp market: Japanese pulp emerges as a complementary product to Indonesian pulp, while Thailand and Brazilian pulp act as substitutes. These findings have valuable strategic implications for Indonesian policymakers and industry stakeholders in managing the complexities of global pulp trade dynamics
Export Demand of Non-Timber Forest Products: A Case Study of Cinnamon Products in Indonesia Tanjung, Neni Christina Purba; Simangunsong, Bintang Charles Hamonangan; Manurung, Elisa Ganda Togu
Jurnal Sylva Lestari Vol. 12 No. 1 (2024): January
Publisher : Department of Forestry, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23960/jsl.v12i1.853

Abstract

Indonesia is a major cinnamon (Cinnamomum sp.) exporting country in the world. Previous research generally measured the information on competitiveness. To improve performance, export demand behavior should also be known. This study aimed to estimate Indonesia’s cinnamon export demand function. The panel data model was investigated using panel data exports to 11 country destinations from 2010 to 2020. The classical assumption test of heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation and the model specification test were conducted. The results show that the export demand function can be represented well by the fixed-effects model, which explains about 96% of its variance. The obtained income and price elasticities were 1.08 and -0.30, indicating normal goods with inelastic export demand. It implies that countries with high-income growth should be prioritized in export expansion, and raising an export price might be a good policy option. Research on global supply chains and price volatility is needed. In addition, this study results in formulating policies related to developing the cinnamon product industry and trade. Keywords: Cinnamomum sp., data regression, demand, export, function panel
Competitiveness of Indonesia’s Paper in Japan’s Market Atasha, Maya; Simangunsong, Bintang Charles Hamonangan; Manurung, Elisa Ganda Togu
Jurnal Sylva Lestari Vol. 13 No. 3 (2025): September
Publisher : Department of Forestry, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23960/jsl.v13i3.1248

Abstract

Paper and paperboard consistently contribute to Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves with high export values. Research on demand and other economic analyses related to paper and paperboard products in Indonesia is insufficient. This paper focuses on Indonesian paper and paperboard competitiveness in international markets, especially in strengthening the Indonesian economy and supporting sustainable growth. Paper with Harmonized System Code 480256 is the largest proportion of Indonesia’s exported paper and is mostly exported to Japan. The import share of Indonesian paper in Japan’s market was approximately 69% from 2010 to 2023. Based on the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) model, the import demand of Indonesian paper was found to be elastic. Moreover, China and Indonesia papers were substitutes, whereas Indonesia and the United States papers were complementary. Expenditure elasticity analysis further showed that Indonesia’s paper was a normal good in Japan’s market. These results highlight the policy relevance for policymakers in designing and improving Indonesia’s forest products for international trade. Keywords: budget share, export, paper, price elasticity, QUAIDS
Co-Authors Atasha, Maya Bintang C. H. Simangunsong Evi Natalia Tanjung, Neni Christina Purba