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All Journal ETIKONOMI Economic Journal of Emerging Markets
Ishak, Ismahalil
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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The impact of population aging and fertility rate on economic growth in Malaysia Abdul Karim, Zulkefly; Nuruddin, Nurul Aqilah Mohd; Abdul Karim, Bakri; Mohamad, Massita; Ishak, Ismahalil
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 15 Issue 2, 2023
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art7

Abstract

Purpose ― This study aims to examine the impact of population aging and fertility rates on economic growth in Malaysia for the sample spanning from 1961 to 2020.Method ― The study uses an Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) model to examine the relationship between economic growth, the aging population, fertility rate, capital stock, and employment rate.Findings ― The main results provide evidence of a long-run relationship between aging, fertility rate, employment, and capital stock on Malaysian economic growth. The results also show that the aging population harms economic growth in the long run, but a decline in the fertility rate has been favorable to long-term economic growth.Implication ― These findings have significant implications for the execution and formulation of national aging and demographic policies and government efforts to achieve long-term fiscal sustainability.Originality ― This study empirically investigated the link between population aging and economic development, reflecting recent demographic trends in Malaysia. This study uses current data and an Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) technique to analyze long-term economic growth and its association with supply-side determinants
Population Aging and Economic Growth in Malaysia: New Evidence using Panel Threshold Analysis Abdul Karim, Zulkefly; Arif, Nur 'Alyaa; Karim, Bakri Abdul; Mohamad, Massita; Ishak, Ismahalil
ETIKONOMI Vol. 25 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Faculty of Economic and Business, Universitas Islam Negeri Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/etk.v25i1.37927

Abstract

Research Originality: This research contribution focuses on the panel threshold model to examine the non-linear relationship between population aging and economic development in Malaysia. Research Objectives: This study aims to investigate the impact of aging on state economic growth in Malaysia (comprising 13 states and two federal territories) from 2005 to 2021. Research Methods: This study employed a threshold regression to identify the minimum turning point of aging that significantly impacts the Malaysian state's economic growth, while controlling for other factors. Empirical Results: The results revealed a single threshold effect between aging and economic growth, indicating a nonlinear positive relationship. The labor force aged 15-64 years has a positive impact on states' economic development. Implications: Therefore, these findings underscore the importance of policymakers focusing on the turning point to achieve balanced economic growth. These new findings are crucial for policymakers as additional input for implementing government policies, especially the National Senior Citizens Policy (DWEN) and the Malaysian Population Policy, to stimulate sustainable economic growth in the Malaysian state. JEL Classification: C18, J13, J21, O4
Co-Authors Arif, Nur 'Alyaa Bakri Abdul Karim Bakri Abdul Karim Mohamad, Massita Nuruddin, Nurul Aqilah Mohd Zulkefly Abdul Karim