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Sinaga, Patresia
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Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Social Sciences

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Non-Linear Trend Analysis to Forecast The Number of New Two-Wheeled and Four-Wheeled Vehicles in Manokwari Regency Sinaga, Patresia; Ria Matulessy, Esther; Nurhaida, Nurhaida
Journal of Social Research Vol. 3 No. 1 (2023): Journal of Social Research
Publisher : International Journal Labs

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55324/josr.v3i1.1861

Abstract

Forecasting is a systematic effort that employs scientific methods (knowledge and technology) to predict future events. Trends depict patterns of time series data over long or significant time intervals, indicating a tendency to either rise or fall. Trend lines are not always linear; they can have a curved (non-linear) shape. Non-linear trends refer to trend models that involve quadratic, cubic, and so on equations. Based on the non-linear trend-shaped data plot and research objectives, non-linear trend analysis is used to forecast the number of motor vehicles in Manokwari Regency. The best model for forecasting the number of new two-wheeled vehicles is the cubic trend model, which is: with a MAPE of 7.8%, categorized as excellent. The best model for forecasting the number of new four-wheeled vehicles is also the cubic trend model, which is: with a MAPE of 5.7%, categorized as excellent.
Co-Authors Nurhaida Nurhaida Ria Matulessy, Esther