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Forecasting International Tourist Arrivals in Indonesia Using SARIMA Model Nurhasanah , Deden; Salsabila , Aurielle Maulidya; Kartikasari, Mujiati Dwi
Enthusiastic : International Journal of Applied Statistics and Data Science Volume 2 Issue 1, April 2022
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/enthusiastic.vol2.iss1.art3

Abstract

Tourism is an important sector that significantly contributes to the economy, so the tourism sector is a priority development program. International tourist arrivals indirectly contribute to the country's economic growth. The government has an important task to increase the number of foreign tourist visits. One way to encourage an increase in foreign tourist arrivals is by forecasting. In general, the time series data for the arrival of foreign tourists has a seasonal pattern. The forecasting method that can model seasonal data is SARIMA. This study aims to predict the arrival of foreign tourists in Indonesia using the SARIMA model. Forecasting results show that the appearance of foreign tourists to Indonesia has increased every period.