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p-Index From 2021 - 2026
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All Journal Journal of Development Economic and Social Studies (JDESS)
Pimada, Laila
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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The Influence of Global Risks on the Composite Index Andriyani, Rodhiya; Pimada, Laila
Journal of Development Economic and Social Studies Vol. 4 No. 4 (2025)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21776/jdess.2025.04.4.05

Abstract

This research investigates the influence of Geopolitical Risk (GPR), Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), the Volatility Index (VIX), and Brent oil prices on the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) in Indonesia. By incorporating all major global uncertainty factors into a single model, this study bridges a gap in the existing literature, which often analyzes these variables separately. The research employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model using monthly data from 2018 to 2024 to capture both short-run and long-run dynamics between the variables. The empirical results reveal that Brent oil prices exhibit a significant positive relationship with the JCI, implying that higher oil prices may enhance market sentiment and investment value in resource-dependent economies. Conversely, the VIX demonstrates a strong and significant negative relationship with the JCI, suggesting that rising global market volatility suppresses investor confidence and capital inflows. However, neither geopolitical risk nor economic policy uncertainty shows a statistically significant impact on the JCI. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and investors, emphasizing the relative resilience of the Indonesian stock market amid global financial and political turbulence.
The Influence of Investor Sentiments and Macroeconomic Factors on Bitcoin Price Putra, Daffa Tegar Maulana; Pimada, Laila
Journal of Development Economic and Social Studies Vol. 5 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

This study aims to analyse the influence of investor sentiment and macroeconomic factors on the price of Bitcoin in Indonesia. Investor sentiment is proxied by Google Trends and the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), while macroeconomic factors include inflation and interest rates. The research utilizes monthly data from January 2021 to August 2024 and is analysed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method, with exchange rate, Brent oil price, and the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) as control variables. The estimation results show that in the short term, Google Trends has a significant negative effect, while the CCI and interest rates have significant positive and negative effects, respectively. Conversely, in the long term, only the CCI has a significant negative effect on Bitcoin prices. These findings suggest that in the short term, Bitcoin price movements are more influenced by shifts in investor sentiment and monetary market conditions, whereas in the long term, rising consumer optimism may reduce interest in high-risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Co-Authors Andriyani, Rodhiya Putra, Daffa Tegar Maulana