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All Journal Global: Jurnal Politik Internasional Jurnal Review Politik Aliansi : Jurnal Politik, Keamanan Dan Hubungan Internasional
Ramadhan, Muhammad Fauzan Rizki
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Humanities Social Sciences

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Motif Invasi Militer Rusia terhadap Ukraina Tahun 2022 Ramadhan, Muhammad Fauzan Rizki
Jurnal Review Politik Vol. 13 No. 1 (2023): June
Publisher : Fakultas Ushuluddin dan Filsafat UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15642/jrp.2023.13.1.124-151

Abstract

This research analyses the motives behind Russia's military invasion of Ukraine's sovereign territory in 2022. The invasion is a continuation of Russia's invasion of Crimea in 2014, and is part of a long history of conflict in the Eastern European region. This qualitative research focuses on Russia's perspective and how the country sees the main reasons for the conflict, namely the formation of 'the near abroad' policy and its link to the expansion of the US-led NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) alliance. Using the theory of structural realism, this study tries to provide preliminary assumptions of motives with the conditions of international structures and their impact on Russia. This assumption is then strengthened by the elaboration of opinions from related research subjects, which can confirm these assumptions.
THE GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM AND THE SHIFTING BALANCE OF POWER IN THE HORN OF AFRICA Ramadhan, Muhammad Fauzan Rizki
Global: Jurnal Politik Internasional Vol. 26, No. 2
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

This article briefly explains the correlation between Ethiopia’s ambitious GERD project and the potential shift in power distribution in the region known as the Horn of Africa. The GERD (Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam) is a hydroelectric dam designed to drive economic growth by harnessing the Nile River as its core. Focusing on a regional-level analysis, this article will examine the relationship between the completion of the project and the shift in power distribution between Egypt as the local status-quo power, and Ethiopia as the regional challenger. Thus, the dramatic transition in regional structure is related to categorizing the Nile River as a finite natural resource. Using the multiple hierarchy model derived from power transition theory, this article sees that Egypt and Ethiopia view the Nile River as their primary national interest. Both countries perceive the reduced access to the river’s water as an existential threat to their sovereignty and safety. Thus, The GERD project becomes an instrument for Ethiopia to enhance its structural position as a challenger to Egyptian hegemony and gain the right to a more equitable water allocation. Thus, the completion of the project could pose a real threat not only to Egypt’s structural position but also to its survival as a state.
RELEVANSI BALANCE OF THREAT DALAM MENGKAJI TRANSFORMASI KAPABILITAS PERTAHANAN JEPANG TAHUN 2023 Ramadhan, Muhammad Fauzan Rizki; Nurfebriansyah, Ahmad Rifki
Aliansi Vol 5, No 1 (2026): Aliansi : Jurnal Politik, Keamanan Dan Hubungan Internasional
Publisher : Universitas Padjadjaran

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24198/aliansi.v5i1.70357

Abstract

Artikel ini berargumen bahwa perspektif Jepang terhadap ancaman global dan regional, mempengaruhi orientasi kebijakan pertahanannya. Merujuk pada Buku Putih Pertahanan tahun 2023, Jepang telah memulai transformasi dan peningkatan kapabilitas pertahanan terbesar dalam sejarahnya semenjak Perang Dunia Kedua. Meski memiliki komitmen konstitusional pasifisme dan non-militerisme, serta masih terjebak dalam stagnasi ekonomi kepanjangan, ancaman yang dipersepsikan nyatanya cukup untuk memengaruhi kalkulasi strategisnya secara radikal. Dengan mengatasnamakan pertahanan diri, Tokyo rela untuk melepas secara gradual identitas tradisionalnya agar dapat lebih efektif menjawab secara mandiri ancaman-ancaman yang berasal dari negara revisionis di lingkungannya. Menggunakan teori Balance of Threat, dan desain riset kualitatif berlogika deduktif, artikel ini melihat bahwa keputusan transformasi pertahanan yang dilakukan Jepang merupakan suatu bentuk jawaban atas peningkatan persepsi ancaman dari negara tersebut, yang disebabkan oleh negara-negara agresif dan ambisius di lingkungannya seperti Korea Utara, Rusia, dan juga Cina. Tingginya persepsi ancaman tersebut dibuktikan dengan mengoperasionalisasikan empat variabel dari teori, yakni; agregat kekuatan, kedekatan geografis, kapabilitas ofensif, dan intensi ofensif, yang masing-masing memperlihatkan tren yang merugikan Tokyo. Hal ini kemudian menjadi justifikasi yang memaksa Jepang untuk merespon kondisi ini secara mandiri dengan melakukan transformasi dan peningkatan kapabilitas pertahanannya di tahun 2023, guna menjawab tantangan geopolitik keamanan yang semakin mendesak. 
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