Sutardjo, Abdul Wahid
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Comparison of Accuracy Levels in Financial Distress Prediction Models using Altman Z-Score, Zmijewski, and Springate Sutardjo, Abdul Wahid; Andarwati
Jurnal Management Risiko dan Keuangan Vol. 4 No. 3 (2025)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21776/jmrk.2025.04.3.08

Abstract

Purpose – This study aims to evaluate the accuracy of three financial distress prediction models—Altman Z-Score, Zmijewski, and Springate—in predicting financial distress among E512 tourism sector companies (hotels, resorts, and cruise ships) listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the 2019–2023 period.   Design/methodology/approach –  This research employs a descriptive quantitative approach using secondary data from E512 tourism companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The predictive performance of the Altman Z-Score, Zmijewski, and Springate models was compared based on their accuracy in estimating financial distress.   Findings – The results show that the Zmijewski model achieves the highest prediction accuracy at 93.3%, outperforming the Altman Z-Score model (46%) and the Springate model (8%). These findings indicate that the Zmijewski model is the most reliable tool for identifying potential financial distress in tourism companies, although it should be used as an early warning indicator rather than a definitive bankruptcy prediction.   Originality/value – This study provides a comparative evaluation of three widely used financial distress prediction models in Indonesia's tourism sector, offering practical guidance for investors, creditors, and other stakeholders in assessing corporate financial health.