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Maukar, Marvel
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Education Social Sciences

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Peramalan Jumlah Wisatawan Nusantara di Kota Tomohon Menggunakan Regresi Linear Siwi, Vena Diane; Polii, Michelle; Tambayong, Fresa; Wowiling, Abel; Kelen, Divaria; Bungangu, Pricillya; Hamid, Hizkia; Mangobi, James U. L.; Maukar, Marvel
SOSCIED Vol 8 No 2 (2025): SOSCIED - November 2025
Publisher : LPPM Politeknik Saint Paul Sorong

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32531/jsoscied.v8i2.965

Abstract

Tourism is a strategic sector that has an important role in promoting regional economic growth through increased local revenue and job creation. The province of North Sulawesi, especially the city of Tomohon, has superior tourism potential in the form of natural beauty and cultural wealth which is the main attraction for Indonesian tourists. Historical Data show a trend towards an increase in the number of tourist visits from 2015 to 2024, despite a significant decrease in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to predict the number of tourists visiting the city of Tomohon archipelago using simple linear regression. Based on the results of the analysis, the regression equation y = 276,756 + 23,468 X was obtained, which showed that the number of tourists increased on average by 23,468 people per year. Using this model, the prediction of the number of Indonesian tourists visiting Tomohon City in 2025 is around 534,904 people. The results of this forecasting are expected to provide useful information for the development of sustainable and competitive tourism.
PEMODELAN MATEMATIKA JUMLAH PENDUDUK MINAHASA UTARA DENGAN PENDEKATAN LOGISTIK Lubis, Anggelica; Ruata, Leli; Koesni, Artia; Pandei, Aifel; Sumampouw, Franklin A. W; Sabe, Altomi M; Mangobi, James U. L.; Maukar, Marvel
SOSCIED Vol 8 No 2 (2025): SOSCIED - November 2025
Publisher : LPPM Politeknik Saint Paul Sorong

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32531/jsoscied.v8i2.1049

Abstract

The development of population size is a crucial factor in determining the direction of regional development. North Minahasa Regency has shown a relatively stable population growth trend each year. This study aims to construct a mathematical model using a logistic approach to predict the population of North Minahasa from 2020 to 2024. The logistic model was selected because it effectively represents growth that does not continuously increase but slows down as resources become limited. The prediction results are expected to support more accurate and sustainable development policies.
Co-Authors Bungangu, Pricillya Hamid, Hizkia Kelen, Divaria Koesni, Artia Lubis, Anggelica Pandei, Aifel Polii, Michelle Ruata, Leli Sabe, Altomi M Siwi, Vena Diane Sumampouw, Franklin A. W Tambayong, Fresa Wowiling, Abel