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All Journal Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Potimau, Grace A.
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Mathematics

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Rainfall Characteristic and Prediction in Central Maluku Using Markov Chain Kais, Siti Djasmin; Tentua, Gilldo; Waas, Valencia; Potimau, Grace A.; Soulisa, Jihan A. S.; Wattimanela, Henry Junus
Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Vol 4 No 2 (2025): Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/parameterv4i2pp369-380

Abstract

This study analyzes rainfall characteristics in Central Maluku Regency using Markov Chain methodology to model stochastic rainfall patterns. Monthly rainfall data from 2015-2024 were categorized into dry (<100 mm), normal (100-200 mm), and wet (>200 mm) conditions and processed using Microsoft Excel and R software. Results show rainfall conditions stabilize with long-term probabilities of 44.25% for wet, 32.89% for normal, and 22.87% for dry conditions. The system reaches steady state in 19 months, with 2025 predictions following this distribution. Findings support agricultural planning, disaster mitigation, and sustainable resource management in this climate-vulnerable archipelagic region.
Co-Authors Kais, Siti Djasmin Soulisa, Jihan A. S. Tentua, Gilldo Waas, Valencia Wattimanela, Henry Junus