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INTEGRASI FORECASTING DAN FUZZY MAMDANI UNTUK MENENTUKAN PRODUKSI OPTIMAL PT INOVASI IKAN NUSANTARA Yugi Yulinar; Kayla Nabila Putri; Michelle Jasmine Firdaus; Muhammad Febri Giri Wandana; Muhammad Arfi Nurali; Muhammad Marvin Mahardika; Suhendi Irawan
Jurnal Intelek Dan Cendikiawan Nusantara Vol. 2 No. 6 (2025): Desember 2025 - Januari 2026
Publisher : PT. Intelek Cendikiawan Nusantara

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Abstract

Penelitian ini dilatarbelakangi oleh tingginya ketidakpastian pada permintaan dan pasokan bahan baku yang dihadapi PT Inovasi Ikan Nusantara, sehingga dapat mengganggu stabilitas dan efektivitas proses produksi. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah mengembangkan model integrasi metode forecasting dan Fuzzy Mamdani untuk menghasilkan keputusan produksi yang lebih akurat, adaptif, dan mampu meminimalkan risiko mismatch antara kebutuhan pasar dan ketersediaan bahan baku. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif deskriptif dengan data primer berupa hasil wawancara dan observasi, serta data sekunder berupa histori permintaan dan pasokan bahan baku. Tiga metode forecasting diterapkan, yaitu Naïve Method, Simple Moving Average, dan Exponential Smoothing, kemudian dievaluasi menggunakan MAE, MAPE, MSE, dan MAD untuk menentukan metode paling akurat. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa Exponential Smoothing (α=0,05) merupakan metode terbaik dalam memprediksi permintaan dengan nilai forecast sebesar 1.308,78 kg, sementara Naïve Method memberikan hasil paling akurat untuk memproyeksikan pasokan dengan nilai forecast sebesar 3.500 kg. Nilai hasil ramalan tersebut kemudian dijadikan input pada sistem Fuzzy Mamdani yang memproses data melalui tahap fuzzifikasi, inferensi, dan defuzzifikasi. Model integrasi fuzzy–forecasting menghasilkan rekomendasi jumlah produksi optimal sebesar 2.630 kg pada periode November. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa integrasi forecasting dan fuzzy logic mampu memberikan keputusan produksi yang lebih fleksibel, realistis, dan efektif dalam menghadapi ketidakpastian operasional perusahaan
PENERAPAN DATA BASE PADA UMKM ROTI BAKAR DENGAN MICROSOFT ACCESS Salsabila Ramadhani; Wiratama, Samuel; Alycia Putri; Sekar Laksita Gayatri; Cristin Simanjuntak; Putri Haya Azzahra; Adisya Fauziah Jazmine Daulay; Suhendi Irawan
JURNAL ILMIAH EKONOMI DAN MANAJEMEN Vol. 4 No. 1 (2026): Januari
Publisher : CV. KAMPUS AKADEMIK PUBLISING

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61722/jiem.v4i1.7946

Abstract

Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (UMKM) are a sector that contributes significantly to the national economy. However, many UMKM actors still manage business information manually, especially in recording sales data, inventory, and daily transactions. This traditional recording method often causes various problems, such as a high risk of data entry errors, the possibility of losing archives, and difficulties in searching for information when needed. These obstacles can reduce operational effectiveness and potentially hinder business growth in the long term. Based on these conditions, this study was conducted with the aim of implementing a database system for a Toast Bread UMKM using Microsoft Access. The application of this system is expected to provide a more efficient, organized, and easily accessible alternative for data management whenever needed. To collect the data, the researcher conducted direct interviews with Toast Bread vendors operating around the Vocational School of IPB University. From the interview process, important information needed by the vendors was identified, such as raw material stock data, menu lists, sales frequency, and daily report requirements. The findings of this study show that the use of a Microsoft Access-based database provides positive impacts for UMKM. The system helps simplify data storage and processing, as well as produce faster and more accurate reports. In addition, more structured data access also helps UMKM actors make business decisions more precisely. Overall, the implementation of Microsoft Access has proven to increase efficiency, accuracy, and professionalism in data management for the Toast Bread UMKM, thus supporting the business to grow in a more organized and sustainable way.
Co-Authors Adisya Fauziah Jazmine Daulay Alycia Putri Cristin Simanjuntak Kayla Nabila Putri Michelle Jasmine Firdaus Muhammad Arfi Nurali Muhammad Febri Giri Wandana Muhammad Marvin Mahardika Putri Haya Azzahra Salsabila Ramadhani Sekar Laksita Gayatri Wiratama, Samuel Yugi Yulinar