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TRANSFORMASI STRUKTUR PERBANKAN INDONESIA: TINJAUAN SISTEMATIS KEBIJAKAN PENGHAPUSAN KBMI 1 DAN ALTERNATIF STRATEGI PENGUATAN MODAL INTI Adisardjono, Johanes Kuntjoro
JURNAL ILMIAH EDUNOMIKA Vol. 9 No. 4 (2025): EDUNOMIKA
Publisher : ITB AAS Indonesia Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29040/jie.v9i4.18643

Abstract

Abstract In late October 2025, Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK) issued a directive requiring KBMI 1 banks (core capital IDR 3-6 trillion) to undertake capital strengthening or consolidation, ultimately aiming to eliminate the KBMI 1 category and mandate minimum core capital of IDR 6 trillion. This study employs a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) methodology analyzing 67 academic and practitioner publications to examine policy implications for 34 affected KBMI 1 banks, identify alternative capital strengthening strategies based on international best practices, and evaluate the policy from multi-stakeholder perspectives. Findings indicate that while this transformation presents consolidation opportunities to enhance national banking efficiency and competitiveness, it also introduces significant challenges related to technological capabilities, risk management, integration complexity, and diverse banking business models. The analysis reveals that successful implementation requires balanced approaches that preserve healthy market competition while accommodating bank heterogeneity through differentiated regulatory strategies. Keywords: KBMI 1, banking consolidation, core capital, capital adequacy, financial system stability
MAPPING GLOBAL RISKS FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS (2026–2030): AN INTEGRATED VUCA–PESTEL FRAMEWORK FOR CROSS-INDUSTRY STRATEGIC RESILIENCE Adisardjono, Johanes Kuntjoro
JURNAL ILMIAH EDUNOMIKA Vol. 10 No. 1 (2026): EDUNOMIKA
Publisher : ITB AAS Indonesia Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29040/jie.v10i1.19030

Abstract

Global economic and organizational environments are increasingly shaped by heightened uncertainty arising from overlapping crises, rapid technological change, geopolitical fragmentation, and intensifying climate impacts. While prior studies have examined specific risks or sectoral contexts, comprehensive cross-industry risk mapping with a medium-term horizon remains limited. This study aims to identify and interpret dominant global risks for the period 2026–2030 using an integrated VUCA–PESTEL framework. The study adopts a conceptual–analytical research design, employing expert-informed risk synthesis based on authoritative global reports and selected academic literature. The analysis follows three stages: thematic risk identification, risk clustering, and multidimensional mapping, in which VUCA is treated as the operating environment and PESTEL as macro-environmental risk domains.The analysis identifies ten dominant global risk clusters with systemic and cross-industry implications, including climate-related systemic risk, food insecurity, geopolitical fragmentation, economic slowdown, technological disruption, cybersecurity vulnerability, erosion of public trust, regulatory acceleration, supply chain and energy insecurity, and reputational risk. The findings indicate that contemporary risks are increasingly interconnected and non-linear, challenging traditional silo-based risk management approaches. This study extends existing approaches by integrating VUCA and PESTEL into a unified framework for medium-term global risk mapping, supporting anticipatory risk governance and organizational resilience across industries. Keywords: Global Risk; VUCA - PESTEL; Risk Governance; Strategic Foresight; Organizational Resilience