Article Per Year (5 Year)
p-Index From 2021 - 2026
0.23
P-Index
This Author published in this journals
All Journal International Journal of Advances in Data and Information Systems
Salsabiila, Annas Thasya Haafizhah
Unknown Affiliation
Computer Science & IT Electrical & Electronics Engineering

Published : 1 Documents Claim Missing Document
Claim Missing Document
Check
Articles

Found 1 Documents
Search

 1 
Comparative Analysis of ARIMA and Fourier Series Methods for Air Temperature Forecasting in Surabaya Salsabiila, Annas Thasya Haafizhah; Permata, Regita Putri; Hidayati, Sri
International Journal of Advances in Data and Information Systems Vol. 6 No. 3 (2025): December 2025 - International Journal of Advances in Data and Information Syste
Publisher : Indonesian Scientific Journal

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59395/ijadis.v6i3.1415

Abstract

Urban climate change, particularly rising temperatures and the Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon, poses challenges for cities like Surabaya, Indonesia. This study compares the forecasting performance of ARIMA and ARIMA-Fourier models using daily air temperature data from 2020 to 2024. The analysis involved stationarity testing, model estimation, and evaluation across four forecasting horizons. ARIMA models (especially ARIMA(0,1,1) and ARIMA(1,1,0)) showed reliable short-term forecasts, but were less effective in capturing seasonal patterns. To address this, Fourier terms were integrated into the ARIMA framework. The ARIMA-Fourier model achieved better accuracy and higher R² values in short- and medium-term forecasts, particularly with an oscillation parameter of k = 150. However, its performance declined in long-term predictions due to overfitting risks. Overall, the ARIMA-Fourier model is more adaptive for capturing complex temperature seasonality and can support more accurate urban climate forecasting in Surabaya.
Co-Authors Regita Putri Permata Sri Hidayati