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All Journal Sinkron : Jurnal dan Penelitian Teknik Informatika
Gotama, I Gusti Agung Raditiya
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Computer Science & IT

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Enhanced Stacked GRU Model for Monthly Rice Production Forecasting in Bali Province Gotama, I Gusti Agung Raditiya; Sudipa, I Gede Iwan; Brahma, Anak Agung Gede Raka Wahyu; Ariantini, Made Suci; Wulandari, Dewa Ayu Putri
Sinkron : jurnal dan penelitian teknik informatika Vol. 10 No. 1 (2026): Article Research January 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Ganesha Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33395/sinkron.v10i1.15715

Abstract

Rice production has a seasonal pattern that depends on the planting cycle and environmental conditions, requiring forecasting methods that can accurately model temporal dynamics. This study aims to predict monthly rice production in Bali Province using the Stacked Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) architecture. Monthly rice production data from 2018 to 2024 from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) was used as the main source. The preprocessing stage includes data cleaning, Min-Max normalization, and feature engineering in the form of creating sin_month and cos_month features to capture seasonal patterns, as well as a 3-month rolling mean to extract short-term trends. The proposed stacked design with dual-layer GRU combined with seasonal features improves temporal pattern extraction compared to single-layer GRU baselines. The model was tested using three configurations, and Scheme 3 provided the best performance with an MAE value of 1610.21, an RMSE of 2055.90, and a MAPE of 14.29%, which is considered good accuracy. The model was able to follow seasonal production trends, including an increase at the beginning of the year and a decrease during the planting period. Long-term predictions for the next 12 months and quarterly forecasts per district/city also showed patterns consistent with historical data. The results of the study indicate that Stacked GRU is effective in forecasting seasonal rice production and can be used as a basis for decision support in food security planning in Bali.
Co-Authors Brahma, Anak Agung Gede Raka Wahyu I Gede Iwan Sudipa Made Suci Ariantini Wulandari, Dewa Ayu Putri