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All Journal CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi
Aditya, Josephin Viona
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Mathematics

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Nasdaq Inc. Stock Price (NDAQ) Prediction Due to Trump's Tariff Policy Using Pulse Function Intervention Analysis Sediono, Sediono; Siagian, Kimberly Maserati; Aditya, Josephin Viona
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 11, No 1 (2026): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/cauchy.v11i1.37168

Abstract

Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ) is one of the leading stock exchanges in the United States, ranking second globally after the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) based on market capitalization. As a highly dynamic and information-sensitive market, Nasdaq Inc. stock prices respond quickly to internal corporate conditions and external macroeconomic or policy changes. One notable event affecting market stability was President Donald Trump's import tariff policy, aimed at protecting U.S. industries from foreign competition, particularly Chinese imports. The implementation of this policy triggered significant volatility, including a sharp decline in Nasdaq Inc. stock prices on March 2, 2025. This study examines the impact of this policy on Nasdaq Inc. stock movements using the ARIMA(0,2,1) model with an intervention of order b=0, r=1, and s=0. The results show that all model parameters are statistically significant and produce accurate forecasts, with a MAPE of 2.19%, an RMSE of 5.98766, and an MAE of 2.05232. These findings indicate that intervention analysis effectively captures the impact of import tariff policies on stock market dynamics and provides valuable insights for investors and policymakers in anticipating market fluctuations driven by global economic policy changes.
Co-Authors Sediono, Sediono Siagian, Kimberly Maserati