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All Journal Jurnal Dunia Kesmas Bulletin of Information Technology (BIT)
Mutakin Sambas, Jenal
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Computer Science & IT Environmental Science Public Health

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ARIMA and LSTM Comparison for Forecasting Healthcare Service Costs in Bogor Rizal Ashari Nampira, Rizal; Mutakin Sambas, Jenal; Nur Laily Fitriana, Ika; Adhi Kasari Sulung, Liyu
Bulletin of Information Technology (BIT) Vol 6 No 4 (2025): Desember 2025
Publisher : Forum Kerjasama Pendidikan Tinggi (FKPT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47065/bit.v7i1.2278

Abstract

The National Health Insurance (JKN) program, managed by BPJS Kesehatan, has experienced a significant increase in healthcare service costs, particularly at Advanced Referral Healthcare Facilities (FKRTL). This study aims to compare the forecasting accuracy of ARIMA and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) methods in predicting healthcare service costs in FKRTL Bogor from January 2014 to October 2024. The data, sourced from BPJS Kesehatan Branch Bogor, were analyzed using time series approaches. Model evaluation was conducted using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Results show that for 80% of training data, LSTM produced a MAPE of 8.85% and RMSE of IDR 6.98 billion, slightly outperforming ARIMA (0,1,1) with MAPE of 10.28% and RMSE of IDR 6.67 billion. For the 20% testing data, LSTM demonstrated significantly better accuracy, with an MAPE of 12.97% and RMSE of IDR 15.52 billion, compared to ARIMA’s MAPE of 24.22% and RMSE of IDR 30.76 billion. Therefore, LSTM is considered more effective for short- to medium-term forecasting of JKN healthcare costs, particularly when dealing with complex and non-linear patterns.
Analisis Cost-Effectiveness Antara Telepsychiatry Dan Perawatan Tatap Muka Pada Layanan Kesehatan Mental: Tinjauan Sistematis Mutakin Sambas, Jenal; Nadjib, Mardiati
Jurnal Dunia Kesmas Vol 15, No 1 (2026): Volume 15 Nomor 1
Publisher : Persatuan Dosen Kesehatan Masyarakat

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33024/jdk.v15i1.23999

Abstract

Gangguan kesehatan mental merupakan masalah global dengan prevalensi yang terus meningkat, sementara akses terhadap layanan psikiatri masih terbatas akibat kendala geografis, kekurangan tenaga ahli, dan tingginya biaya layanan. Telepsychiatry dan intervensi digital berbasis telemedicine muncul sebagai pendekatan untuk memperluas jangkauan layanan kesehatan mental. Tinjauan sistematis ini bertujuan menganalisis efektivitas klinis dan cost-effectiveness telepsychiatry dibandingkan layanan tatap muka. Pencarian literatur dilakukan pada PubMed/MEDLINE, Scopus, dan ScienceDirect untuk periode 2021–2025 dan dilaporkan sesuai dengan PRISMA 2020. Dari 172 artikel yang diidentifikasi, delapan studi memenuhi kriteria inklusi, terdiri atas randomized controlled trials dan evaluasi ekonomi yang membandingkan telepsychiatry atau intervensi digital (iCBT, blended CBT, eHealth, dan iSMI) dengan layanan tatap muka. Hasil kajian menunjukkan bahwa intervensi digital berbasis telepsychiatry umumnya menghasilkan efektivitas klinis yang sebanding dengan layanan tatap muka. Dari perspektif ekonomi, sebagian besar studi melaporkan biaya total yang lebih rendah atau probabilitas cost-effective yang lebih tinggi, dengan variasi hasil yang dipengaruhi oleh karakteristik populasi, tingkat dukungan profesional, dan perspektif analisis yang digunakan.
Co-Authors Adhi Kasari Sulung, Liyu Nadjib, Mardiati Nur Laily Fitriana, Ika Rizal Ashari Nampira, Rizal