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All Journal BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika)
Arrofah, Aini Divayanti
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Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

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FORECASTING THE INFLATION RATE IN INDONESIA USING ARIMA-GARCH MODEL Saifudin, Toha; Suliyanto, Suliyanto; Afifa, Fitriana Nur; Arrofah, Aini Divayanti; Fauzi, Doni Muhammad; Pratama, Fachriza Yosa; Adyatma, Isryad Yoga
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 20 No 2 (2026): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol20iss2pp0955-0970

Abstract

Inflation is a key economic indicator that affects purchasing power, economic growth, and financial stability. Accurate forecasting is essential for policymakers to implement effective monetary and fiscal policies. However, traditional models like ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) mainly capture general trends and often fail to address inflation volatility. This study enhances inflation forecasting accuracy by applying the ARIMA-GARCH hybrid model, which combines trend estimation with volatility modelling. Focusing on Indonesia’s inflation patterns using recent data, it addresses a gap in existing research. This type of research uses quantitative methods, and the data were obtained from the official website of Bank Indonesia. The dataset consists of 240 monthly Indonesian inflation data points spanning from September 2004 to August 2024. The ARIMA (0,1,1)-GARCH (2,0) model is used to analyze inflation trends and volatility dynamics. The model evaluation shows strong predictive performance, with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 2.73% and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 0.74 for training data. Testing data results in a MAPE of 18.95% and RMSE of 0.702, which remains within an acceptable range. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating volatility modelling in inflation forecasting to enhance economic decision-making. A reliable forecast mitigates economic uncertainty, thereby providing a stronger foundation for achieving long-term economic growth. This study contributes by demonstrating the practical application of ARIMA-GARCH in Indonesia’s inflation modelling, providing valuable insights for policymakers in managing inflation-related risks.
Assessment of Dietary Intervention Effects on Food Intake in Mus musculus using Repeated Measures ANOVA Suliyanto, Suliyanto; Amelia, Dita; Arrofah, Aini Divayanti; Alisiah, Rindiani Ahmada; Anida, Nuzulia; Maulidya, Utsna Rosalin
JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Vol 10, No 2 (2026): April
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/jtam.v9i4.32467

Abstract

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes, metabolic syndrome, along with obesity that causes disturbances in the body's metabolic processes are the main triggers of chronic liver disease or in scientific language called Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD), getting out of control. This makes managing this disease an increasingly serious global health challenge. One of the main factors influencing this condition is a high-fat diet and an unhealthy lifestyle. Therefore, evaluation of high-fat diet programs on metabolic parameters such as food intake patterns is important as a preventive measure. This study aims to analyze the differences in food intake levels with seven different types of dietary treatments for 28 days, which were tested on mice (Mus musculus) which have physiological and biochemical characteristics that almost resemble humans. The method used was analysis of variance (ANOVA) for longitudinal data to evaluate the dynamics of food consumption across diet groups and observation periods. The results showed that the type of dietary treatment significantly influenced food intake patterns over time, indicating that diet composition plays a crucial role in shaping eating behavior. These findings highlight the importance of both diet type and treatment duration in influencing consumption patterns. However, since this study has not yet identified the most effective dietary regimen, future research is recommended to investigate diet types with high variability, while considering additional factors such as age, sex, and physiological characteristics, as well as extending the observation period to better understand long-term impacts.
Co-Authors Adyatma, Isryad Yoga Afifa, Fitriana Nur Alisiah, Rindiani Ahmada Anida, Nuzulia Dita Amelia, Dita Fauzi, Doni Muhammad Maulidya, Utsna Rosalin Pratama, Fachriza Yosa Suliyanto Suliyanto Toha Saifudin