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All Journal GOVERNANCE: Jurnal Ilmiah Kajian Politik Lokal dan Pembangunan West Science Interdisciplinary Studies West Science Interdisciplinary Studies
Artha, Dicky
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Humanities Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Social Sciences

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Attributing Climate vs. Land-Cover Effects on Watershed Hydrology and Water Quality: A Systematic Review of Modeling and Statistical Frameworks Artha, Dicky; Lihawa, Fitriyane; K Baderan, Dewi Wahyuni
West Science Interdisciplinary Studies Vol. 3 No. 12 (2025): West Science Interdisciplinary Studies
Publisher : Westscience Press

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58812/wsis.v3i12.2515

Abstract

Climate change and land-use/land-cover (LULC) dynamics jointly reshape watershed hydrology and water quality, yet their relative contributions remain difficult to isolate across regions, indicators, and methods. This systematic review synthesizes 28 peer-reviewed studies (2000–2025) that explicitly attribute or partition climate and LULC effects on streamflow, water yield, evapotranspiration, baseflow, and multiple water-quality indicators (e.g., nutrients, sediments, dissolved organic matter, salinity/alkalinity, and contaminant mixtures). Studies were grouped into four synthesis themes: (i) conceptualizations and study designs, (ii) process-based and hybrid modeling frameworks, (iii) statistical and decomposition approaches, and (iv) cross-context patterns and water-quality attribution. Across the evidence base, attribution outcomes are strongly conditioned by methodological choices—especially baseline definition, construction of climate-only and LULC-only counterfactuals, spatial and temporal scale, and the metric used to express contributions (e.g., scenario contrasts, sensitivities, or variance explained). Long-term water-balance responses are often attributed primarily to climate forcing, while water-quality outcomes are more frequently attributed to LULC and direct anthropogenic pressures, with climate acting as a key modulator of transport pathways and exposure. We conclude that robust climate–LULC attribution requires explicit counterfactual design, integrated use of process-based and data-driven frameworks, explicit representation of interactions, and routine uncertainty analysis to support context-sensitive watershed management and climate adaptation.
Attributing Climate vs. Land-Cover Effects on Watershed Hydrology and Water Quality: A Systematic Review of Modeling and Statistical Frameworks Artha, Dicky; Lihawa, Fitriyane; K Baderan, Dewi Wahyuni
West Science Interdisciplinary Studies Vol. 3 No. 12 (2025): West Science Interdisciplinary Studies
Publisher : Westscience Press

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58812/wsis.v3i12.2515

Abstract

Climate change and land-use/land-cover (LULC) dynamics jointly reshape watershed hydrology and water quality, yet their relative contributions remain difficult to isolate across regions, indicators, and methods. This systematic review synthesizes 28 peer-reviewed studies (2000–2025) that explicitly attribute or partition climate and LULC effects on streamflow, water yield, evapotranspiration, baseflow, and multiple water-quality indicators (e.g., nutrients, sediments, dissolved organic matter, salinity/alkalinity, and contaminant mixtures). Studies were grouped into four synthesis themes: (i) conceptualizations and study designs, (ii) process-based and hybrid modeling frameworks, (iii) statistical and decomposition approaches, and (iv) cross-context patterns and water-quality attribution. Across the evidence base, attribution outcomes are strongly conditioned by methodological choices—especially baseline definition, construction of climate-only and LULC-only counterfactuals, spatial and temporal scale, and the metric used to express contributions (e.g., scenario contrasts, sensitivities, or variance explained). Long-term water-balance responses are often attributed primarily to climate forcing, while water-quality outcomes are more frequently attributed to LULC and direct anthropogenic pressures, with climate acting as a key modulator of transport pathways and exposure. We conclude that robust climate–LULC attribution requires explicit counterfactual design, integrated use of process-based and data-driven frameworks, explicit representation of interactions, and routine uncertainty analysis to support context-sensitive watershed management and climate adaptation.
EFEKTIVITAS IMPLEMENTASI KEBIJAKAN JAKSTRADA PERSAMPAHAN KOTA GORONTALO TAHUN 2024: TINJAUAN TERHADAP PRINSIP 3R, KINERJA PENANGANAN, DAN AKSI PRIORITAS Rahman, Sitti Mutiah; Dunggio, Iswan; Artha, Dicky
GOVERNANCE: Jurnal Ilmiah Kajian Politik Lokal dan Pembangunan Vol. 12 No. 2 (2025): 2025 Desember
Publisher : Lembaga Kajian Ilmu Sosial dan Politik (LKISPOL)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56015/gjikplp.v12i2.605

Abstract

Kebijakan dan Strategi Daerah (Jakstrada) pengelolaan sampah merupakan instrumen kunci bagi Kota Gorontalo dalam menangani permasalahan sampah rumah tangga dan sejenisnya. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis efektivitas implementasi Jakstrada Tahun 2024 Semester I dengan fokus pada tiga dimensi: (1) kesesuaian struktur kebijakan dengan prinsip 3R (Reduce–Reuse–Recycle); (2) kinerja pengurangan dan penanganan sampah dibandingkan target; serta (3) identifikasi aksi kebijakan yang paling berdampak. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan deskriptif kualitatif melalui telaah dokumen dan analisis isi terhadap “Laporan Kebijakan dan Strategi Daerah (Jakstrada) Persampahan Kota Gorontalo Tahun 2024”, yang dilengkapi regulasi terkait serta literatur ilmiah mengenai pengelolaan sampah dan efektivitas kebijakan publik. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa struktur kebijakan Jakstrada telah memenuhi prasyarat penerapan prinsip 3R dengan mengintegrasikan upaya pengurangan di sumber, pemanfaatan melalui TPS3R, bank sampah, dan rumah kompos, serta penanganan akhir di TPA. Namun, kinerja pengurangan sampah baru mencapai 24,90% dibandingkan target 28%, sedangkan penanganan sampah mencapai 70,69% dari target 71%, sehingga masih terdapat kesenjangan kinerja. Analisis lebih lanjut mengungkap bahwa program pembatasan timbulan sampah di sekolah dan fasilitas publik, serta pendayagunaan TPS3R dan rumah kompos, merupakan aksi kebijakan yang paling signifikan dalam mendorong kinerja pengurangan dan penanganan sampah. Studi ini merekomendasikan penguatan edukasi publik, perluasan infrastruktur daur ulang terdesentralisasi, penerapan kewajiban pemilahan di sumber, serta integrasi sistem data real-time untuk meningkatkan efektivitas implementasi Jakstrada secara berkelanjutan.
ANALISIS KOMPARASI STATISTIK DAN IMPLIKASI EKOLOGIS DINAMIKA TUTUPAN LAHAN DAERAH ALIRAN SUNGAI (DAS) LIMBOTO PERIODE 2018-2022: PENDEKATAN UJI NON-PARAMETRIK WILCOXON SIGNED-RANK Artha, Dicky; Dunggio, Iswan; Rahim, Sukirman
GOVERNANCE: Jurnal Ilmiah Kajian Politik Lokal dan Pembangunan Vol. 12 No. 2 (2025): 2025 Desember
Publisher : Lembaga Kajian Ilmu Sosial dan Politik (LKISPOL)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56015/gjikplp.v12i2.637

Abstract

ABSTRAK Transformasi penggunaan lahan di Daerah Aliran Sungai (DAS) Limboto merupakan indikator kritis tekanan antropogenik terhadap ekosistem Danau Limboto yang kini berstatus Kritis Nasional. Sebagian besar kajian sebelumnya mengevaluasi perubahan ini menggunakan metode deskriptif persentase tanpa validasi statistik inferensial, sehingga gagal mendeteksi signifikansi anomali data dalam distribusi spasial. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk: (1) menganalisis karakteristik distribusi data perubahan lahan DAS Limboto 2018-2022, (2) menguji signifikansi perbedaan struktur penggunaan lahan menggunakan pendekatan statistika non-parametrik, dan (3) mengevaluasi dampak lingkungan dari dinamika tersebut terhadap fungsi hidrologis DAS. Data penelitian adalah data sekunder luas tutupan lahan time series (n=12 kategori). Analisis dilakukan melalui Uji Normalitas Shapiro-Wilk dan Uji Beda Dua Sampel Berpasangan Wilcoxon Signed-Rank. Hasil: Analisis deskriptif menunjukkan degradasi masif pada Semak Belukar (-9.838,89 Ha atau -79,16%) yang beralih fungsi menjadi Pertanian Lahan Kering (+4.854,16 Ha) dan Hutan Tanaman (+1.270 Ha). Uji statistik menunjukkan distribusi selisih perubahan lahan tidak normal (p<0.05). Uji Wilcoxon menghasilkan nilai signifikansi asimtotik (p) sebesar 0.248 (p>0.05), yang berarti secara statistik agregat tidak terdapat perbedaan signifikan pada median luas lahan. Temuan ini mengindikasikan fenomena "stabilitas statistik semu" (statistical illusion of stability), di mana keseimbangan peringkat data menutupi realitas degradasi lingkungan. Konversi lahan vegetasi alami menjadi pertanian jagung monokultur di area hulu diprediksi meningkatkan koefisien larian (run-off) dan memperparah laju sedimentasi ke Danau Limboto.
Co-Authors Dewi Wahyuni K. Baderan Iswan Dunggio Lihawa, Fitriyane Rahman, Sitti Mutiah Sukirman Rahim