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All Journal Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Talakua, Andrew Hosea
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Mathematics

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Enhancing Rainfall Forecasting Performance in Bandung City Using Bi-LSTM with Grid Search Optimization on Gregorian and Lunar Calendar Data Yunizar, Mahdayani Putri; Talakua, Andrew Hosea; Darmawan, Gumgum
Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Vol 4 No 3 (2025): Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/parameterv4i3pp595-601

Abstract

Rainfall is a climatic factor that strongly influences human activities and plays a crucial role in decision making related to water resources, mobility, and disaster preparedness. High rainfall intensity may escalate into hydrometeorological hazards, underscoring the importance of accurate rainfall forecasting to support early warning and mitigation efforts. This study aims to compare the forecasting accuracy of monthly rainfall predictions between the Gregorian and lunar calendars using the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) model optimized through a grid search approach. The method is designed to capture temporal patterns arising from the distinct structures of two asynchronous calendars. Daily rainfall data from Bandung City, Indonesia, covering the period from 2000 to 2025, were converted into monthly series in both calendar systems. The results reveal that the Gregorian calendar provides significantly better forecasting performance, achieving the lowest MAPE value of 11.60 percent at the three-month horizon. In contrast, the lunar calendar shows higher variability and reaches its best MAPE of 31.43 percent at the same horizon. These findings indicate that the Gregorian calendar offers a more stable temporal representation for rainfall forecasting in Bandung and supports improved predictive modeling for climate-related decision making.
Co-Authors Gumgum Darmawan Yunizar, Mahdayani Putri