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All Journal JP2M (Jurnal Pendidikan dan Pembelajaran Matematika) Abdimas: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Universitas Merdeka Malang
Vita Fibriyani
Faculty of Economics, Universitas Merdeka Pasuruan
Humanities Mathematics

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Institutional strengthening of Pokdarwis Banyumili in utilizing the potential of water resources as tourism Ronny Winarno; Vita Fibriyani; Ardhiwinda Kusumaputra
Abdimas: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Universitas Merdeka Malang Vol. 10 No. 2 (2025): May 2025
Publisher : University of Merdeka Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26905/abdimas.v10i2.14957

Abstract

Kelompok Sadar Wisata (Pokdarwis) is an organization/institution whose purpose is to develop an area with tourism potential. The Bekacak area, Kolursari Village, Bangil Subdistrict, Pasuruan Regency, is one of the areas that Pokdarwis Banyumili sees as having tourism potential by utilizing water resources. However, these efforts have not yet run optimally because of the institutional aspect of Pokdarwis Banyumili. There are two main problems, namely human resource management and institutional governance. An effort is needed to strengthen Pokdarwis Banyumili as an institution/organization. The goal is for Pokdarwis Banyumili to become a strong institution, so that it can optimally develop the tourism potential in its area. Therefore, a community service program was carried out. The method used was through Focus Group Discussion (FGD) activities or training, which specifically provided benefits to increase the understanding of Pokdarwis Banyumili administrators/members. Materials, discussions, and simulations were provided on the topics of Pokdarwis institutional governance, environmental sustainability, tourism development, and building cooperation with other parties. Supported by digitalization by utilizing applications, social media, and websites. This can result in increased understanding and competence for the management/members of Pokdarwis Banyumili so that they can make it a strong and optimal institution in the tourism sector.  
TIME SERIES MODELING OF INDONESIA’S INFLATION RATE USING ARIMA: A CASE STUDY OF 2015–2025 INFLATION DATA Vita Fibriyani; Maylita Hasyim; Any Tsalasatul Fitriyah
JP2M (Jurnal Pendidikan dan Pembelajaran Matematika) Vol 11, No 2 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Bhinneka PGRI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29100/jp2m.v11i2.10110

Abstract

Inflation is a key macroeconomic indicator that reflects price stability and forms the basis for monetary policy formulation. This study aims to model and evaluate the ability to forecast Indonesia's inflation rate using monthly data from 2015 to 2025 with the Augmented Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) approach. The ARIMA method is used to capture the dynamics of the inflation time series and identify the existence of inflation inertia. The analysis stages include stationarity testing, model identification based on the Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) patterns, parameter estimation, and residual diagnostic and forecasting accuracy evaluation. The analysis results show that inflation data is stationary at a level that does not require differencing. The best model obtained is ARIMA (1,0,0) with a statistically significant first-order autoregressive component. Model performance evaluation using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) yields a value of 15.37%, indicating that the model has a fairly good forecasting accuracy. Empirically, these findings support the theory of inflation inertia, in which previous periods of inflation play an important role in explaining current inflation. The results of this study show that the simple ARIMA model is still relevant and effective for short-term inflation forecasting in Indonesia, especially in conditions of relatively stable monetary policy.
Co-Authors Any Tsalasatul Fitriyah Ardhiwinda Kusumaputra Maylita Hasyim Ronny Winarno