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Jordan Putra Cahyono
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Effect of Trade Openness, Foreign Direct Investment, and Labor on GDP Per Capita of ASEAN Countries Azzahra Mubyaring Putri Sayekti; Tiara Ayu Kusumaningtyas; Jordan Putra Cahyono
Jurnal Budget : Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara Vol 10 No 1 (2025): Jurnal Budget: Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara
Publisher : Pusat Analisis Anggaran dan Akuntabilitas Keuangan Negara

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Trade openness has been widely studied for its impact on economic growth, yet its specific role in ASEAN countries, with diverse levels of integration and trade policies, remains underexplored. This study examines the effects of trade openness, foreign direct investment (FDI), and labor on GDP per capita in ASEAN countries using panel data from 2008 to 2022. Employing a fixed-effect regression model with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors, the findings reveal that trade openness has a significant yet negative impact on GDP per capita, while FDI and labor exhibit significant positive effects. This study recommends ASEAN countries to diversify exports, reduce dependency on foreign inputs, strengthen local industries, attract high-quality FDI, and improve labor capacity through education and vocational training. Strengthening intraregional trade cooperation is also crucial to reduce development disparities and promoting inclusive growth.
Evaluation Of Fiscal Policy Transmission On External Balance Through The Current Account Balance In Indonesia Jordan Putra Cahyono; Muhammad Haniffirza Usman; Rio Saputra Simanjuntak; Belantika Aplugi
Jurnal Budget : Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara Vol 10 No 2 (2025): Jurnal Budget: Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara
Publisher : Pusat Analisis Anggaran dan Akuntabilitas Keuangan Negara

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This study examines the impact of government budget shocks on the current account balance (CAB) in Indonesia, addressing the gap in understanding the short-term effects of fiscal policy on external balance. Using annual time-series data from 1981 to 2024, the research applies an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model to analyze the relationship between government expenditure and CAB. Key findings reveal that government consumption expenditure (GGFCE) has a significant positive effect on CAB, with a coefficient of 0.136, suggesting that a 1% increase in government spending improves the current account balance by 0.136% of GDP. Conversely, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) has a significant negative effect on CAB with a coefficient of -0.181, indicating that higher domestic investment, reliant on imported capital goods, worsens the current account deficit. These findings highlight the importance of balancing fiscal expansion with strategic spending. Theoretical implications suggest that fiscal policy's impact on the current account is mediated by both domestic consumption and trade flows. From a policy perspective, the study recommends that Indonesia’s fiscal strategy focus on export-oriented sectors, such as manufacturing and renewable energy, while controlling non-productive consumption and intensive imports. This approach can strengthen Indonesia’s economic resilience to external shocks and improve its external balance.
Dynamic Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth: A Study of Macroeconomic Vulnerability in Asean 5 Jordan Putra Cahyono; Mohtar Rasyid
Jurnal Budget : Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara Vol 10 No 1 (2025): Jurnal Budget: Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara
Publisher : Pusat Analisis Anggaran dan Akuntabilitas Keuangan Negara

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This study investigates the nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth in ASEAN-5 countries, with a focus on identifying country-specific inflation thresholds and analyzing macroeconomic resilience before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aims to evaluate how inflation shocks above certain thresholds influence economic stability under dynamic global conditions. Quarterly data from 2000 to 2023 including inflation rates, real GDP growth, and lending interest rates were analyzed using Threshold Autoregressive (TAR), Panel Threshold Regression (PTR), and Vector Autoregression (VAR) models. Impulse Response Functions (IRF) and Chow tests were employed to assess dynamic interactions and structural shifts across time. Results reveal heterogeneous inflation thresholds: 0.13% (Singapore), 2.11% (Malaysia), 2.39% (Philippines), and 3.25% (Thailand), while Indonesia exhibits a volatile threshold of –1.11%, reflecting structural instability. When inflation exceeds these thresholds, real GDP declines significantly, with Indonesia showing a contraction of up to 1.2% over four quarters. Post-pandemic impacts are notably stronger, indicating reduced economic resilience. The study highlights the need for adaptive, threshold-based monetary policy tailored to each country’s structural profile. Regional policy harmonization should be reconsidered in favor of context-specific responses, including inflation-targeting frameworks, commodity price stabilization, and economic diversification to strengthen resilience amid global uncertainty.
Co-Authors Azzahra Mubyaring Putri Sayekti Belantika Aplugi Mohtar Rasyid . Muhammad Haniffirza Usman Rio Saputra Simanjuntak Tiara Ayu Kusumaningtyas