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All Journal Jurnal Teknik Industri Terintegrasi (JUTIN)
Lubis, Hasyim Fadhillah
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Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Energy Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Mechanical Engineering

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Optimasi Persediaan Toko Mainan Menggunakan Simulasi Monte Carlo untuk Menghadapi Ketidakpastian Permintaan Musiman Nasution, Rafa Adhitya Dharmawangsa; Pramana, Yoddis; Lubis, Hasyim Fadhillah; Hasibuan, Ridho Rahman; Anwar, Khairul
Jurnal Teknik Industri Terintegrasi (JUTIN) Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): January
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Pahlawan Tuanku Tambusai

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31004/jutin.v9i1.55900

Abstract

This study aims to optimize inventory policy in a toy retail store facing seasonal demand uncertainty using Monte Carlo simulation. Fluctuating demand often leads to overstock and stockout risks, increasing holding costs and potential lost sales. Historical daily demand data were used to construct a probabilistic model, followed by 10,000 simulation iterations to generate the probability distribution of total inventory costs. The cost model consists of holding costs and shortage costs. The simulation results indicate that total cost follows a probabilistic distribution and that an optimal reorder point exists to minimize the expected total cost. Sensitivity analysis confirms the trade-off between holding and shortage costs. The findings demonstrate that Monte Carlo simulation effectively supports adaptive, risk-based, and efficient inventory decision-making for small-scale retail businesses.
Co-Authors Hasibuan, Ridho Rahman Khairul Anwar Nasution, Rafa Adhitya Dharmawangsa Pramana, Yoddis