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All Journal Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan (JESP)
Jongkers Tampubolon
HKBP Nommensen University, Medan
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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The Effects of Domestic Demand and Export on Economic Growth of North Sumatra Jongkers Tampubolon; Aaron Loh
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan Vol 12, No 2 (2020)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.17977/um002v12i22020p108

Abstract

The objective of this study is to investigate the roles of domestic demand and export in the economic growth of North Sumatra, Indonesia. Specifically, this study examined: (i) the effect of domestic demand and export on economic growth, (ii) the effect of domestic demand components (i.e., private consumption, government consumption, and investment) on economic growth, and (iii) causal relationships between domestic demand, export, and economic growth. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test for cointegration, the study revealed thatNorth Sumatra’s economic growth is not driven by export. Export and economic growth do not affect each other, whereas domestic demand and economic growth influence each other dynamically. In the short-run, private consumption and investment have positive and significant effects on economic growth. However, in the long-run, only private consumption has a significant effect. ARDL Granger causality analysis showed that in the short-run, only private consumption has a causal relationship with economic growth. The absence of the causal relationships between both investment and government expenditure and economic growth indicates that the export sector, which is growing rapidly in both monetary terms and its shares in the regional gross domestic products (GDP), is isolated from the regional economic activities.
RCA Analysis With Selected Product: Modified Approach Applied to Indonesian Export Jongkers Tampubolon
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan Vol 11, No 2 (2019)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.17977/um002v11i22019p143

Abstract

Recognition of the competitiveness of various export commodities is very important to design industrial policies which is then shaping the country 's structural transformation, such as to reallocate  labors to activities outside of sector with lower comparative advantage. The most popular comparative advantage measurement approach is Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) introduced by Balassa in 1965. Eventhough Balassa's RCA very popular, it has received a lot of criticism and improvement effort especially related to its asymmetric distribution and consistency (ranking bias). This present study introduced a new method to increase the predictive power of Balassa's RCA while maintaining the simplicity principle of calculation and convenience in dealing with data availability by selecting product included in the analysis. The study revealed that by selecting the product limited to the top 250 export (from 1,259 products in HS 4-digit), it is able to correct (restore) the position of Indonesian manufacturing sector as a competitive sector (RCA> 1) reflected by the position of the sector as top 10 export, based on export share (export value). This approach also provided a new understanding of Indonesia's export competitiveness in the Chinese market, especially after the implementation of the ASEAN-China FTA in 2010.
Co-Authors Aaron Loh