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Kartika Maulida Hindrayani
Universitas Pembangunan Nasional "Veteran" Jawa Timur
Computer Science & IT

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Application of Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis for Weather Prediction Abdul Mukti; Kartika Maulida Hindrayani; Mohammad Idhom
bit-Tech Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): bit-Tech
Publisher : Komunitas Dosen Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32877/bt.v8i2.3003

Abstract

Weather significantly influences various aspects of life, especially in urban areas like Surabaya, where unpredictable weather can disrupt transportation, public health, economic activities, and overall comfort. Among the key meteorological variables, air temperature and relative humidity are crucial for assessing human thermal comfort, as their interaction forms the heat index a key indicator of health risks in tropical regions. This study introduces the use of the Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA) method to forecast daily weather parameters, including minimum temperature (TN), maximum temperature (TX), average temperature (TAVG), and average relative humidity (RH_AVG). The research utilized weather data from the Perak 1 Meteorological Station in Surabaya, spanning from August 1 to December 31, 2024 (training data) and January 1 to January 14, 2025 (testing data). Unlike traditional methods, the MSSA model effectively analyzes the complex relationships between multiple weather variables, improving forecasting accuracy. The model demonstrated strong performance, with Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPE) of 3.70% for TN, 5.99% for TX, 4.44% for TAVG, and 7.39% for RH_AVG. These results highlight MSSA's potential as an effective tool for short-term weather forecasting in urban tropical environments, supporting more accurate predictions that can inform early warning systems, disaster planning, and public health strategies. This work advances the state-of-the-art by offering a robust method for handling multivariate weather data, which is essential for making informed decisions in rapidly changing climates
Effectiveness of Extreme Learning Machine in Online Payment Transaction Fraud Detection Radya Ardi; Mohammad Idhom; Kartika Maulida Hindrayani
bit-Tech Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): bit-Tech
Publisher : Komunitas Dosen Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32877/bt.v8i2.3005

Abstract

The rise of fintech and digital payment systems has increased efficiency but also escalated the risk of online transaction fraud, particularly under imbalanced data conditions where fraudulent cases are rare. This study addresses the limitations of traditional rule-based and machine learning models in such scenarios by proposing the use of Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) with hyperparameter tuning as a novel and efficient solution for fraud detection. Unlike most prior studies relying on default settings or data resampling, this research focuses on enhancing ELM performance purely through parameter optimization using the Optuna framework. A dataset of 20,000 real-world online transactions was used to evaluate model performance before and after tuning. In its default configuration, ELM yielded high overall accuracy (96.80%) but failed to detect fraudulent cases (0% recall and F1-score). After tuning key parameters such as the number of hidden neurons and activation function, the model achieved a significantly better balance between accuracy and fraud detection performance, with 99.53% accuracy, 98.20% precision, 86.51% recall, and a 91.98% F1-score. These results demonstrate that hyperparameter tuning alone, without resampling, can substantially improve ELM’s sensitivity to minority class detection. The findings suggest that optimized ELM offers a promising alternative for real-time fraud detection in imbalanced financial datasets, contributing to more adaptive and reliable security systems in the digital finance landscape.
Co-Authors Abdul Mukti Mohammad Idhom Radya Ardi