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All Journal Mizania : Jurnal Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Jurnal Nawala Politika
Muhammad Adnan Nurcahyo
Politeknik Keuangan Negara STAN
Humanities Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Social Sciences

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State Recognition as a Maritime Security Strategy: Israel’s Recognition of Somaliland in the Red Sea Crisis Muhammad Adnan Nurcahyo; Pierre Canry Rambe Manalu
JURNAL NAWALA POLITIKA Vol. 4 No. 1 (2026): Jurnal Nawala Politika
Publisher : Department of Political Science, Faculty of Social and Political Science, Udayana University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/jnp.v4i1.2581

Abstract

This study examines Israel’s recognition of Somaliland in the context of maritime insecurity in the Red Sea during 2023–2026. The research addresses how and why state recognition can function as a strategic instrument for maritime security. The study aims to identify the strategic interests Israel seeks to secure, assess Somaliland’s geopolitical value, and analyze the regional security implications of the recognition. The analysis applies Neorealism and Regional Security Complex Theory to explain the interaction between structural pressures and regional security dynamics. The research employs a qualitative case study design based on document analysis of institutional reports, policy documents, and scholarly literature. The findings indicate that Israel’s recognition of Somaliland serves as a strategic response to maritime vulnerabilities around the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint by expanding potential access to strategic infrastructure such as Berbera Port. However, this move also triggers regional securitization related to territorial integrity and alters the security configuration of the Red Sea region.
Forecasting Strategic Food Commodity Prices for 2026 Using ARIMA: Policy Implications for Price Stability in Indonesia Muhammad Adnan Nurcahyo; I Made Susila Sastra Dharma; Bryan Rizki Ananda Hakim; Zalfa Nur Nazarinda; Anggraeni Vriscilia Putri Harianja; Eka Saputri; Radhika Hartami Putri
MIZANIA: Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Akuntansi Vol. 6 No. 2 (2026): Mizania: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Akuntansi
Publisher : Economics and Business Faculty UNUSIA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47776/mizania.v6i2.2187

Abstract

Food price volatility remains a major challenge for economic stability and inflation control in Indonesia, particularly for strategic food commodities that dominate household consumption. Commodities such as garlic, chicken eggs, chicken meat, cooking oil, and sugar contribute significantly to national inflation and require effective price stabilization policies. This study aims to forecast the prices of five strategic food commodities for 2026 using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The analysis employs daily price data from 2023 to 2025 obtained from official government sources. The forecasting procedure follows the Box–Jenkins methodology, including stationarity testing, model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking, and forecasting. Model performance is evaluated using Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and the coefficient of determination (R²). The results show that the ARIMA model effectively captures short-term price dynamics and produces reliable forecasts for all examined commodities. Overall, the forecasting results indicate a general upward trend in food prices throughout 2026, with varying degrees of volatility across commodities. These findings provide important insights for policymakers in designing anticipatory food price stabilization and inflation control strategies.
Co-Authors Anggraeni Vriscilia Putri Harianja Bryan Rizki Ananda Hakim Eka Saputri I Made Susila Sastra Dharma Pierre Canry Rambe Manalu Radhika Hartami Putri Zalfa Nur Nazarinda