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Firdha Aksari Anindyntha
Development Economics Study Program, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Muhammadiyah Malang, Indonesia
Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Macroeconomic Determinants of Indonesia's Economic Growth: An ARDL Approach Rangga Yuntoro; Firdha Aksari Anindyntha
Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi JIE Vol. 10 No. 02 (2026): Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi
Publisher : Program Studi Ekonomi Pembangunan Universitas Muhammadiyah Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22219/jie.v10i02.43740

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of Foreign Debt, Foreign Direct Investment, and the Consumer Confidence Index on Indonesia's short- and long-term economic growth. Quarterly data from 2015 to 2024 are used, with Gross Domestic Product growth as the dependent variable. The analytical method used is Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) because it can accommodate differences in the stationarity levels of variables and estimate short- and long-term dynamic relationships simultaneously. The Bounds Test results indicate a cointegration relationship among the variables, indicating long-term equilibrium in the model. Short-term estimates indicate that FDI has a significant negative effect on economic growth, while CCI has a positive and significant effect, and external debt shows no significant effect. In the long run, external debt has a significant positive effect on economic growth, while FDI and CCI show no significant effect. Financing through foreign debt has the potential to drive economic growth if managed productively. Consumer sentiment plays an important role in driving economic growth through consumption in the short term. Therefore, economic policy needs to be directed at sustainable debt management, improving the quality of FDI, and maintaining macroeconomic stability, consumer confidence, and strong Indonesian economic growth.
Co-Authors Rangga Yuntoro