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All Journal Indonesian Journal of Science and Mathematics Education MEJ (Mathematics Education Journal)
Sibanda, Emmanuel
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Education Mathematics

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Factors Affecting Grade 12 Learners Performances: Analysis using Propensity Score Methods Sibanda, Emmanuel; Mathye, Peter; Masebe, Tshidiso Punch; Rankhumise, Mmushetji Petrus
Mathematics Education Journal Vol. 9 No. 1 (2025): MEJ Vol 9 No.1
Publisher : Department of Mathematics Education University of Muhammadiyah Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22219/mej.v9i1.36678

Abstract

This research examines the impact of pre-existing disparities on Grade 12 examination performance in Gauteng and the Western Cape Provinces of South Africa, utilising propensity score matching to balance influencing factors. The analysis focuses on learners from both provinces who participated in Grade 12 examinations from 2017 to 2019. Based on the 2017 datasets, it was found that learners in the Western Cape had significantly lower odds of passing compared to those in Gauteng when using unmatched datasets. However, after matching, the likelihood of passing for Western Cape learners improved to 69%, though they remained less likely to pass than their Gauteng counterparts. This trend was observed for the years 2018 and 2019. These findings emphasise the importance of using matched data to avoid misleading conclusions in comparative assessments of educational performance.
The impact of selection bias in the analysis of 2018 grade 12 exam data Sibanda, Emmanuel; Peter, Mathye; Punch, Masebe Tshidiso; Rankhumise, Mmushetji Petrus
Indonesian Journal of Science and Mathematics Education Vol. 9 No. 2 (2026): Indonesian Journal of Science and Mathematics Education
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24042/ijsme.v9i2.23962

Abstract

Many studies comparing the performance of students taking 12th-grade exams assume comparable study groups. In practice, selection bias affects comparisons because these studies rely on observational data. This study compares findings from analyses of matched and unmatched datasets to demonstrate the impact of selection bias. The propensity score technique matched learners who took the 2018 Grade 12 examinations in the Western Cape and Gauteng Provinces. Based on the unpaired dataset, the probability of a student graduating in the Western Cape Province is the same as in Gauteng Province. However, analysis of the paired dataset reveals that the probability of a student graduating in the Western Cape Province is 96% lower than that of their counterparts in Gauteng Province. The paired dataset suggests that Gauteng Province provides a more favorable environment or conditions for students to complete Grade 12 than the Western Cape Province. It is concluded that pre-existing differences influence the validity and reliability of the results. Differences in findings between the unpaired and paired datasets highlight the importance of adjusting for measured baseline factors before comparing the two provinces. The implication is that baseline adjustment is essential for valid educational comparisons.
Co-Authors Masebe, Tshidiso Punch Mathye, Peter Peter, Mathye Punch, Masebe Tshidiso Rankhumise, Mmushetji Petrus