Sumatra Journal of Disaster, Geography and Geography Education
Vol 4 No 1 (2020): Sumatra Journal of Disaster, Geography and Geography Education (SJDGGE)

Model of COVID-19 Spread Control Using the Dynamic System Approach in West Nusa Tenggara Province, Indonesia

Anwar, Hairil (Unknown)
Sukardi, L. (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
02 Jun 2020

Abstract

The objective of this research is to try to conduct an outbreak modeling of a Corona virus (Covid-19) pandemic in West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) Province. The modeling approach used in this study is through dynamic system approach with the SEIR technique (Susceptible - Exposed - Infectious - Recovered). In this model, the effectiveness of the policy is tested on three policy scenarios, namely: (1) Loose Scenario is the effectiveness of the intervention 0 - 30%; (2) Moderate Scenarios is the effectiveness of interventions 31 - 60%; and (3) Strict Scenarios is the effectiveness of interventions > 61%. The dynamic model with the Susceptible - Exposed - Infectious - Recovered (SIER) technique can reasonably project the spread of Covid-19. The scenarios of policy interventions that can be implemented to overcome the spread of Covid-19 in West Nusa Tenggara Province are moderate scenario and strict scenario.

Copyrights © 2020






Journal Info

Abbrev

Sjdgge

Publisher

Subject

Education

Description

Sumatra Journal of Disaster, Geography and Geography Education (sjdgge) is an international journal published twice a year in June and December by Universitas Negeri Padang in cooperation with The Center for Disaster and Environmental Studies, Center for Watershed Study, and Center for Community ...