Cost Forecasting Model of Transmission Project based on the PSO-BP Method

Yan Lu (North China Electric Power University)
Dongxiao Niu (North China Electric Power University)
Bingjie Li (North China Electric Power University)
Min Yu (State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Company Economic Research Institute)

TELKOMNIKA (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control)
Vol 12, No 4: December 2014

In order to solve being sensitive to the initial weights, slow convergence, being easy to fall into local minimum and other problems of the BP neural network, this paper introduces the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm into the Artificial Neural Network training, and construct a BP neural network model optimized by the particle swarm optimization. This method can speed up the convergence and improve the prediction accuracy. Through the analysis of the main factors on the cost of transmission line project, dig out the path and lead factors, topography and meteorological factors, the tower and the tower base materials and other factors. Use the PSO-BP model for the cost forecasting of transmission line project based on historical project data. The result shows that the method can predict the cost effectively. Compared with the traditional BP neural network, the method can predict with higher accuracy, and can be generalized and applied in cost forecasting of actual projects.