Peramalan Banyaknya Pengunjung Pantai Glagah Menggunakan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Exogenous (ARIMAX) dengan Efek Variasi Kalender

Solikhah Novita Intan (Universitas Sebelas Maret)
Etik Zukhronah ((SCOPUS ID: 57190935159, h index 1), Universitas Sebelas Maret)
Supriyadi Wibowo (Universitas Sebelas Maret)

Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics
Vol 1, No 2 (2018)

Glagah Beach is one of the tourist destinations in Kulon Progo Regency, Yogyakarta which is the most visited by tourists. Glagah Beach visitors data show  that in the month of Eid Al-Fitr there was a significant increase. This shows that there is an effect of the calendar variation of Eid al-Fitr. Therefore, it is needed a method that can be used to analyze time series data which contains effects of calendar variations, that is ARIMAX method. The aim of this study are to find the best ARIMAX model and to predict the number of visitors to Glagah Beach in the future. The result shows that the best ARIMAX model was ARIMAX([24],0,0). Forecasting from January to September 2016 are 37211, 21306, 26247, 24148, 28402, 29309, 81724, 26029, and 23688 visitors. Keywords: Glagah Beach; variation of calendar; Eid al-Fitr; ARIMAX.