PENERAPAN METODE EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGE PADA PERAMALAN PENGGUNAAN AIR DI PDAM KOTA GORONTALO

WA SALMI (Program Studi Statistika, Fakultas MIPA, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo)
ISMAIL DJAKARIA (Program Studi Statistika, Fakultas MIPA, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo)
RESMAWAN RESMAWAN ([SINTA ID: 5975131] Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo)

JAMBURA JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
Vol 1, No 2 (2020): Jambura Journal of Probability and Statictics

Facing the dry season, it is probable that there is a lack of water or excess distribution at one point during distribution to every house that uses PDAM water every day. This will result in community instability in using water and inaccurate users. Therefore, forecasting of the amount of water used in PDAM Kota Gorontalo for the next period. The method used to forecast is the Exponential Moving Average method. Criteria in determining the best method is based on the value of Mean Absolute Deviation and Mean Absolute Percentage Error. After forecasting each smoothing constant is compared, the best model. in predicting the amount of water use in PDAM Kota Gorontalo is an Exponential Moving Average with a smoothing constant of 0.15 because it has the smallest MAD and MAPE values.