Eksis: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi dan Bisnis
Vol 11, No 2 (2020): November

Multivariate Time Series in Macroeconomics

Ahmadi Ahmadi (Faculty of Economics, Batanghari University)
R Adisetiawan (Faculty of Economics, Batanghari University)



Article Info

Publish Date
23 Nov 2020

Abstract

Gold is one of the most popular commodities and investment alternatives. Gold prices are thought to be influenced by several other factors such as the US Dollar, oil price, inflation rate, and stock exchange so that gold price modeling is not only influenced by its own value. This research was conducted to determine the best forecasting model and to find out what factors influence the price of gold. This research modeled the price of gold in a multivariate and reviewed the univariate modeling that will be used as a comparison model of multivariate modeling. Univariate modeling is done using ARIMA model where the modeling results state that gold price fluctuations as white noise. Multivariate gold price modeling is done using Vector Error Correction Model with gold, oil, US Dollar and Dow Jones indices, and inflation rate as predictors. The results showed that the VECM model has been able to model the gold price well and all the factors studied influenced the gold price. The US dollar and oil prices are negatively correlated with gold prices, while the inflation rate is positively correlated with gold prices. The Dow Jones index was positively correlated with gold prices in just two periods.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

EKSIS

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

Eksis: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi dan Bisnis merupakan jurnal ilmiah yang mempublikasikan hasil penelitian maupun review dibidang ekonomi, manajemen, bisnis, akuntansi, ekonomi syariah dan ekonomi islam. Jurnal ini terbit dua kali dalam setahun yaitu pada bulan Mei dan ...