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All Journal Eksis: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi dan Bisnis
Ahmadi Ahmadi
Faculty of Economics, Batanghari University
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Multivariate Time Series in Macroeconomics Ahmadi Ahmadi; R Adisetiawan
Eksis: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol 11, No 2 (2020): November
Publisher : Universitas Batanghari Jambi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33087/eksis.v11i2.209

Abstract

Gold is one of the most popular commodities and investment alternatives. Gold prices are thought to be influenced by several other factors such as the US Dollar, oil price, inflation rate, and stock exchange so that gold price modeling is not only influenced by its own value. This research was conducted to determine the best forecasting model and to find out what factors influence the price of gold. This research modeled the price of gold in a multivariate and reviewed the univariate modeling that will be used as a comparison model of multivariate modeling. Univariate modeling is done using ARIMA model where the modeling results state that gold price fluctuations as white noise. Multivariate gold price modeling is done using Vector Error Correction Model with gold, oil, US Dollar and Dow Jones indices, and inflation rate as predictors. The results showed that the VECM model has been able to model the gold price well and all the factors studied influenced the gold price. The US dollar and oil prices are negatively correlated with gold prices, while the inflation rate is positively correlated with gold prices. The Dow Jones index was positively correlated with gold prices in just two periods.
Co-Authors R Adisetiawan