JURNAL REKAYASA SISTEM INDUSTRI
Vol 6 No 2 (2021): (Mei 2021)

PERBANDINGAN METODE SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN MOVING AVERAGE PADA PERAMALAN PENJUALAN PRODUK MINYAK GORENG DI PT TUNAS BARU LAMPUNG

Niken Chaerunnisa (Universitas Singaperbangsa Karawang)
Ade Momon (Universitas Singaperbangsa Karawang)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 May 2021

Abstract

PT Tunas Baru Lampung is a company that produces palm cooking oil products under the Rose Brand brand. In product sales, companies sometimes experience ups and downs. Based on the sales data from Rose Brand Cooking Oil, the size of 1 L has fluctuated or in each period it changes and is not always boarding. Even though product sales are one of the important things to be evaluated from time to time on an ongoing basis. To predict future sales, forecasting is done. The forecasting method used is Double Exponential Smoothing and Moving Average. The method of accuracy will be compared using MSE, MAD, and MAPE. The results showed a comparison of the accuracy and the smallest error value in each method. By using the weight values ​​0.1, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, and 0.8 on the Single Exponential Smoothing method the weight value is 0.8 or α = 0.8, namely MSE of 250,570,764.80, MAD of 12,922.32 and MAPE of 33.55 Then, using the movement value n = 3 in the Moving Average method has an accuracy of 438,980,942.75 MSE, 18,142.14 MAD, and 41.37 MAPE. After comparing the accuracy of the two methods, the Single Exponential Smoothing method is the best method to predict sales of Rose Brand 1 L Cooking Oil products.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

rsi

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Materials Science & Nanotechnology

Description

Jurnal Rekayasa Sistem Industri (JRSI) terbit sebanyak dua kali dalam satu tahun (Mei dan November). Terhitung Mulai edisi Mei 2018 publikasi jurnal ini telah dilakukan versi online (ISSN 2621-1262) yang sebelumnya hanya berupa versi cetak (print) (ISSN 2477-2089). Publikasi ini bertujuan untuk ...