EIGEN MATHEMATICS JOURNAL
VOL. 3 NO. 2 DESEMBER 2020

Penerapan Model Vector Autoregressive Integrate Moving Average dalam Peramalan Laju Inflasi dan Suku Bunga di Indonesia

Jusmawati Jusmawati (Universitas Mataram)
Mustika Hadijati (Universitas Mataram)
Nurul Fitriyani (Universitas Mataram)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Dec 2020

Abstract

The inflation and interest rates in Indonesia have a significant impact on the country's economic development. Indonesian inflation and interest rates data are multivariate time series data that show activity over a certain period of time. Vector Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (VARIMA) is a method for analyzing multivariate time series data. This method is a simultaneous equation modeling that has several endogenous variables simultaneously. This study aimed to model the inflation and interest rates data, from January 2009 to December 2016 and predict inflation and interest rates by using VARIMA method. The model obtained was the VARIMA(0,2,2) model, with estimated parameters using the maximum likelihood method. The choice of the VARIMA(0,2,2) model was based on the smallest AIC value of -4,2891, with a MAPE value for the inflation and interest rates forecasting were 6,04% and 1,84%, respectively, which indicates a very good forecast results.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

eigen

Publisher

Subject

Mathematics

Description

Eigen Mathematics Journal mempublikasikan artikel yang berkontribusi pada informasi baru atau pengetahuan baru terkait Matematika, Statistika, dan Aplikasinya. Selain itu, jurnal ini juga mempublikasikan artikel berbentuk survey dalam rangka memperkenalkan perkembangan terbaru dan memotivasi ...