Jurnal Syntax Transformation
Vol 2 No 06 (2021): Jurnal Syntax Transformation

Peramalan Kasus Covid-19 di DKI Jakarta dengan Model Arima

Nurul Qomariasih (Politeknik Siber dan Sandi Negara (Poltek SSN) Bogor Jawa Barat, Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
23 Jun 2021

Abstract

February 2020 was the first time that Indonesian citizens were diagnosed with Covid-19. Until now, the disease caused by the Corona Virus has not subsided, it has even been declared a Global Pandemic. The purpose of this study was to find a Time Series prediction model for the number of positive cases of Covid-19 in one of the cities with the largest number of infections in Indonesia, namely Jakarta. This study uses data from Open Data Jakarta with a time span of 1 September 2020 to 30 November 2020. The model used is the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The resulting ARIMA parameters are (0,1,1), (1,1,0), and (1,1,1), but the best model is ARIMA (1,1,1) where all parameters are significant with p- value<α. The data used for training is 70% and 30% is used for testing. The resulting forecast value is very similar to the actual value. Thus, the model made is quite good in predicting positive cases of COVID-19 in Jakarta in the next month

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jst

Publisher

Subject

Humanities Education Environmental Science Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Social Sciences

Description

Syntax Transformation. Jurnal syntax Transformation adalah jurnal yang diterbitkan sebulan sekali oleh CV. Syntax Corporation Indonesia. Syntax Transformation akan menerbitkan artikel ilmiah dalam lingkup ilmu sosial sains. Artikel yang diterbitkan adalah artikel dari penelitian, studi atau studi ...